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2018 Fort Worth Invitational Preview ⛳️

This week we’re staying in the Lone Star state with the Fort Worth Invitational at the Colonial Country Club. This tournament, more recently known as the Dean & Deluca Invitational and Crown Plaza Invitational, features a Par 70 course that stretches 7,209 yards with somewhat speedy bentgrass greens, 12 dogleg holes, plenty of fairway bunkers to navigate around, and six holes with water to deal with.

We have have a smaller field than most other events, with just 121 teeing off this week, as opposed to 156 that the field will traditionally set up with, so margin for error will be a bit tighter. However, the field is not without some big names, garnering 13 of the worlds top 30 golfers. Looking at the course, with just two par 5’s and 12 par 4’s, we’ll want to focus heavily on accurate hitters off the tee and precise golfers on approach shots, as well as premiere par 4 scorers.

Weather

Not much concern weather-wise here as it should be dry all four rounds with temperatures in the low to mid 80's in the mornings & mid to upper 90's in the afternoons on into the evenings. Hot, for sure, but the only current chance of rain comes in the way of potential pop-up showers on Thursday & Friday but nothing that should hold the tournament back at all. Winds should max out around 10 mph with 3-6 mph being the norm. Nothing these guys can’t handle.

Top 5 Stats to Consider

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

2. Par 4 Average

3. Driving Accuracy

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

5. Birdie or Better %

Lineup Foundation Targets

Emiliano Grillo ($8,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Grillo has been a rock solid cash play all season making 14 of 14 cuts in stroke play events. He’s not just a “cut-maker” either -- he brings four top 10's and six top 25 finishes to the table. The stats are really favoring him as well. Grillo is 10th in the field in SG: Approach shots, 11th in SG: Off the tee, 9th in driving accuracy as well as 9th in greens in regulation, 15th in par 4 scoring, 10th in bogey avoidance and 25th in birdie or better %. That’s a ton of positive statistics to back him up as a completely viable play this week. He’s a better value on DraftKings but he has a very fair price on FanDuel if you ask me. I fully expect him to be a popular cash game staple in many lineups, rightfully so. He doesn’t have a ton of experience on this course but a T24 finish last year puts my mind at ease especially considering how great he is looking this season. He shows up 3rd in my personal model.

Webb Simpson ($10,200 DK, $11,600 FD)

Hard to find a hotter golfer on tour right now than Webb Simpson. He essentially had the Players Championship locked up through the opening 36 holes and was able to cruise through the final two rounds. But this isn’t just a recency bias selection. Simpson carries a pretty hefty price tag this week but he pops out 2nd in my model, just ahead of Grillo, as he stands 11th in SG: Approach, 5th in Par 4 average, 3rd in bogey avoidance and 1st in scrambling. He’s 63rd in driving accuracy, which gives me some slight concern, but I’m buying his recent form. He’s an 18:1 favorite, which is similar or better than essentially anyone around his price range on both sites. He is 12 of 13 cuts made this year and a final tidbit to put your mind at ease if you choose to spend up on Webb this week: back to back top 5 finishes here at Colonial CC.

Zach Johnson ($8,500 DK, $10,800 FD)

Scratch ZJ’s round 3 at The Players Championship and he’s essentially been everything you’re looking for in a cash game play all year. 12/12 cuts made this season, incredible course history with two career wins (‘12/’10), including five top 10's, and 11 cuts made in 11 trips. The stats are there for ZJ too and he shows up 5th in my personal model. A bit more of a bargain on DK, but I think he’s worth fitting in on FanDuel cash lineups as well.

Top Tournament Targets

Bargain Bin

Others to Consider

 Jon Rahm ($11,000 DK, $11,900 FD)

Matt Kuchar ($9,300 DK, $11,500 FD)

Rickie Fowler ($10,400 DK, $11,700 FD) 

Kevin Kisner ($8,100 DK, $9,800 FD)

Top Golfer to Avoid

Honestly, pricing is pretty sharp this week, in my opinion, but I’ll give one guy who won’t be in any of my lineups.

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,400 DK, $9,400 FD)

Oosty’s approach game (111th in SG: Approach in the field) is not there right now and he’s finding himself in terrible position a lot of the time to get birdies (103rd birdie or better %). Course history isn’t there either -- didn’t play here in 2017, 94th in 2016, WD in 2015 and T38 in 2014. Vegas gives him 60:1 odds but I’ll be passing on that.

Good luck this week, guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO (the “i” is a one!) if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer, approaching this week’s tournament, or just to ask about PGA DFS in general!

Thanks for reading!

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