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The 2018 Quicken Loans National Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! This week, we’ll be heading out to Maryland to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm - a Par 70 course that extends to 7,139 yards. The course features bentgrass greens and fairways, 10 water hazards (including eight that are in play off the tee), 83 bunkers to navigate and some very penalizing Kentucky Bluegrass/Fescue rough. Being accurate off the tee will be crucial.

This tournament returned here last year, for the first time since 2006, where Kyle Stanley beat out Charles Howell III in a playoff after both finished at seven under par. TPC Potomac will be no cakewalk as it rated out as the 4th hardest course on Tour last year. Many golfers compared it to playing a Major-style course. Birdies will be at a premium but avoiding bogeys might prove to be even more crucial as the finishing score will likely end in the single digits.

The field is definitely on the weaker side, with just 11 of the World’s top 60 golfers competing. Also, keep in mind that this is an invitational event with just 120 golfers (as opposed to ~156 for standard events) but the 36 hole cut rule remains “top 70 plus ties”. So we will likely see more 6/6 lineups make the cut than usual. Overall, this tournament profiles more as a GPP week for me, as you will be taking some very unfamiliar names in many lineups in order to roster some of the top talent that is priced up for this tournament. All that being said, let’s get into the weather, important stats, and my picks for the week!

Weather 🌦️

As of this writing on Tuesday, the weather is looking relatively ideal. Temperatures will be in the 70's for the morning golfers and kick up to the high 80's/low 90's in the afternoon. Thursday is forecasted to have the highest winds for the entire tournament with 8-10 mph winds starting around 11:00 am and continuing throughout the afternoon. But overall, nothing too concerning. Rains and scattered thunderstorms are projected to roll through Potomac, MD on Wednesday throughout the day and on into the night, so I could see the Thursday AM wave having a slight advantage here. It could be worth making a lineup or two with only golfers teeing off early in the opening round, but not necessary to strategize your entire approach around. As always, be sure to check on the weather late Wednesday or very early Thursday morning for the most up to date forecast!

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) + Driving Accuracy

2. Proximity 175-200 yards & Proximity 200+ yards

3. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

4. Bogey Avoidance

5. Par 4 Average/Birdie or Better % (BoB%)

Lineup Foundation Targets

Here I will highlight three golfers who I believe can be reliable building blocks, especially for cash games, but all are in play for GPPs as well.

Charles Howell III ($8,900 DK, $11,400 FD)

Chucky Three Sticks will enter this week as likely one of the chalkiest options, but rightfully so. He is the kind of grinder you want on a course like this, having made 10 consecutive cuts and, as I mentioned earlier, he finished 2nd here in 2017. The stats are there to back him up as he is 11th in the field in SG: OTT, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 10th in Par 4 Avg., and 30th in SG: App. He just finds away to battle through tough courses and should be a top option in cash games. He is a better value on DraftKings as the 12th most expensive option as opposed to the 4th most expensive on FanDuel.

Kevin Streelman ($8,700 DK, $8,700 FD)

Streelman seems to pop off in my stats model almost any time a Par 70 comes around where accuracy and approach is vital. This week is no different, as he is third in my stat rankings behind only Fowler and Stanley. He led the field in SG: App at the Travelers last week and, for the season, ranks 7th. He’s also 10th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in Par 4 average, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, and 2nd in Greens in Regulation (GIR). Additionally, he is 17/20 cuts made on the year and you’d be hard pressed not to strongly consider him for cash this week. Really, for Streelman this season, it’s just been a struggle for him to breakthrough and get a top 5 finish, but I still like his decent upside and Vegas has him set at 45:1 odds. Also, he is a tremendous value on FanDuel as the 34th priced option; 14th on DraftKings.

Jimmy Walker ($9,600 DK, $11,800 FD)

Jimmy Walker was scorching hot heading into the U.S. Open where he ended up with an underwhelming T56, but you still can’t ignore that he has reeled off nine straight cuts with five Top 20 finishes. Much like Howell, Walker is a guy I’ve been liking on shorter, more difficult tracks. I’ll get the less ideal stats on him out the way first: He is 97th in SG: OTT and 96th in Driving Accuracy and 69th in Bogey Avoidance. However, I think Walker, like many golfers, may be clubbing down off the tee this week in order to hit more fairways and set up for more par & birdie looks. Everything else about his game is in great form. He’s 6th in SG: App and is playing particularly well with his long irons as he is 11th in Prox. 175-200 yards and 32nd in Prox. 200+ yards. Walker is also 16th in BoB% and 33rd in Par 4 Average. Not to mention he is 1st in the field in DraftKings scoring over the past 5 events and has been consistently bringing in a hot putter to most every contest. His Vegas odds opened at 40:1 in a lot of places but he’s currently at 30:1. He may carry a little more risk than I’m used to in my “Foundation Targets” but I could very well see him winning it this week.

Top Tournament Targets

Chesson Hadley ($8,400 DK, $9,900 FD)

With back to back missed cuts and burning quite a few people in that span of time, I can’t imagine Hadley will be ultra-popular this week, which is great for tournaments. On the season, he has 17 made cuts in 21 events, is 2nd in SG: App, 7th in Prox. 175-200 yards, 3rd in Par 4 average, 1st in BoB% and 19th in Bogey Avoidance. Those are stats you’d expect to see from a top 10 player in the world and if you go back and look at his event logs, he was playing very sharp golf before the U.S. Open. I don’t think I can penalize anyone for playing poorly at Shinnecock and last week at the Travelers. He just didn’t have his best stuff going. He’s definitely a player that, when he gets hot, can reel off a crispy top 10 finish and be in the picture on Sunday. Really solid GPP play for me this week.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Lahiri is a guy I should have been on last week in tournaments because I usually like to target him on courses where LTD (less than driver) comes into play, as he is really a great iron player. Lahiri is coming off a very solid T9 finish at the Travelers last week where he finished 7th in SG: App. Considering that the vast majority of approach shots this week will be coming from 150+ yards out, you have to like his season long stats with his longer irons as well: 14th in Prox. 150-175 yards, 49th in Prox. 175-200 yards and 24th in Prox. 200+ yards. His stats in a lot of other categories aren’t necessarily eye popping but no glaring weakness either. He’s 14/18 cuts made on the year, is sneakily 6th in the field in DraftKings scoring the last five events and carries 70:1 odds. He’s definitely a better bargain on FanDuel as the 49th priced player (25th on DraftKings) but I think he makes for a nice ~5% owned tournament play and could carry some cash consideration.

Bargain Bin 💲🗑️

Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week, but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me this week in no particular order:

- Rickie Fowler ($11,700 DK, $12,600 FD) | GPP | Probably too pricey for cash but obviously a top overall GPP target.

- Adam Hadwin ($7,300 DK, $9,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | Form isn’t ideal but 12th in my stats model. Course suits him and only one MC all year. Better DK value.

- Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($9,200 DK, $10,300 FD) | Cash & GPP | One of my favorite plays. 18/20 cuts made & good course fit.

- Peter Malnati ($7,000 DK, $8,100 FD) | GPP | Great punt play who is trending up. 12th in DK scoring last 5 events.

- Kevin Na ($9,400 DK, $9,500 FD) | GPP | Bad MC at the Memorial but 3rd in my player model. Exceptional long iron player.

- Patrick Rodgers ($8,800 DK, $9,300 FD) | GPP | Priced up but 40:1 Vegas odds, nice form and a T22 here last year.

- Francesco Molinari ($10,600 DK, $10,700 FD) | GPP | Priced up for a reason. Go look at his two EURO finishes before the T25 at the U.S. Open.

Top Golfer to Avoid

Oof, last week I didn’t name a player I was outright avoiding, but mentioned I wasn’t big on Bubba for the week. Well, Bubba didn’t like that and decided to win. This week I will get back to listing one guy who I think will be popular that I won’t have much, if any, exposure to.

Beau Hossler ($9,300 DK, $10,400 FD)

Went a little back and forth on this with the guys priced at the top. I was going to consider fading Marc Leishman but I think a lot of people will take that approach considering where the price points are with the top few guys, so he could actually make a great low owned GPP “stud” play. But with Hossler, even though he is coming off a T2 finish last week, my main concern is his lack of approach play. He’s 95th in the field in SG: App and particularly bad with longer iron shots (105th in Prox. 150-175 yards, 88th in Prox. 175-200 yards, and 109th in Prox. 200+ yards). Before last week, he finished outside the top 30 in six straight events. You’re going to want to expect more than that with a guy who is the 9th highest priced option on both sites this week. Crossing my fingers this doesn't back fire on me!

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Good luck this week, guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's hot takes!

Thanks for reading!