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The 2018 U.S. Open Preview ⛳️

Welcome back for one of the most exciting weeks of the year for golf fans! The U.S. Open takes us out to one of the oldest courses in the country, Shinnecock Hills GC, located in the town of Southampton, New York. The U.S. Open was last played here in 2004 and since then, the Par 70 course has received quite a few updates and alterations. Most notably, the course has been lengthened by nearly 500 yards and now stretches 7,445 yards. In turn, some of the fairways have been widened to account for longer drives.

As with nearly any U.S. Open, scoring will be at an absolute premium. The greens here, while large, are fast and undulated making proximity shots very important. The native fescue rough will also cause headaches for many golfers who find themselves too far off the fairways. Some balls that land in this stuff will be virtually unplayable. To get an idea of how difficult scoring will be, Vegas has the eventual winner’s final score to be under par at just -150 odds.

Weather 🌦️

The forecast sets up pretty nicely for this week. All four days appear to be clear of rain and temperatures will consistently be in 60's & 70's. Winds may cause some trouble for players as they reach 10-15 mph on Thursday and Friday but it looks like they will affect both morning and afternoon waves fairly equally. As always, be sure to check the forecast closer to Thursday morning.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) + Proximity

2. Bogey Avoidance

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)

4. Par 4 Average

5. Driving Distance

Lineup Foundation Targets

Here I will highlight three golfers who I believe can be reliable “building blocks”, especially for cash games, but all are in play for GPPs as well.

Justin Rose ($9,900 DK, $12,200 FD)

If I’m looking at the “stud tier” and want considerable safety, Rose really stands out. I’ll preface his stat breakdown by saying he is a much better value on DraftKings as the 7th most expensive option as opposed to FanDuel where he is the 2nd most expensive and just $200 less than Dustin Johnson. Rose isn’t a top tier bomber but he hits long enough to hang with them at 301.6 yards (27th in field) while being fairly accurate (32nd in driving accuracy). He ranks in the top 25 of SG: App, SG: OTT and proximity. He should be able to gain strokes on the field on the many Par 4's as he is 2nd in Par 4 average, 4th in Birdie or Better % (BoB%) and 6th in bogey avoidance. He’s yet to miss a cut this year, has 14:1 Vegas odds, 2nd in DK scoring average in the last 5 events, and should give you a lot of win equity.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,100 DK, $8,800 FD)

If you’ve read my newsletters the past few weeks you’ll know Grillo is no stranger to being one of my primary targets. This week he is criminally under-priced on both sites, which will likely make him one of the most popular plays of the week, especially in cash games. He ranks inside the top 30 in nearly every category I’m targeting this week including SG: App, SG: OTT, Proximity, Par 4 average, BoB% and he minimizes momentum killing bogeys as he is 10th in the field in bogey avoidance. His one downside for me is the fact that he’ll find himself facing longer approach shots. He’s 59th in average driving distance (294.3 yards) but that should still be just fine since he hits almost 70% of fairways, ranking 6th in the field. He should be a top option if you’re looking to fit in 2 to 3 studs.

Paul Casey ($8,000 DK, $10,500 FD)

Sure to be another popular cash option this week, Casey brings in his elite approach game (7th in SG: App) at a reasonable price tag on both sites. He’s just one of those players that has a solid all around game, elite iron play and no glaring weaknesses. With the exception of Par 4 average (55th) he ranks in the top 30 of all five of my top statistical targets for this week. He should be a good bet for a top 20 finish, which is what you’re looking for in the range.

Top Tournament Targets

Brooks Koepka ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

Defending U.S. Open Champion comes in this week as a top target for me, especially at his price on DraftKings. While he did disappoint a bit at the St. Jude Classic last week after being one shot off the lead in the opening round, he still comes in with great form and should be fresher than many others in the field. He’s only competed in seven events this year due to a wrist injury that is clearly behind him. Koepka’s iron game struggled a bit last week but if he gets that back on track, he should do well here as one of the premiere bombers averaging 311.1 yards off the tee, ranking 8th in the field. He has also shown out in recent U.S. Opens with, of course, his win last year, a T13 in 2016, T18 in 2015 and 4th place finish in 2014. In a week where course history can’t really be considered, looking at how a player has performed on difficult tracks that the U.S. Open travels to can be a nice alternative.

Louis Oosthuizen ($7,800 DK, $9,900 FD)

Traditionally Oosty is not a guy I have targeted much but for this week I believe he makes an excellent GPP play. He’s coming in with nice form after a T5 finish three weeks ago at the Fort Worth Invitational followed up by a T13 the Memorial. I think his game is a nice sneaky fit for Shinnecock Hills. His SG: App is not ideal (75th in the field) but looking at other stats that should correlate well, he is 4th in Proximity, 1st in scrambling, is decently long off the tee at a shade under 300 yards average driving distance and accurate enough as well (46th in driving accuracy). He’s made the cut at the U.S. Open in four consecutive years including back to back T23 finishes in 2017 & 2016 and reeled in a 2nd place finish in 2015 at Chambers Bay. With his excellent scrambling, he can manage to make up for some mistakes his game might lend itself to at times. Vegas has him at 55:1 odds, pretty enticing for a guy in this range.

Bargain Bin 💲🗑️

Others to Consider

I can’t write up every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Obviously, the top guys like DJ, Rory, Fowler, Tiger, etc. all deserve consideration depending on how many lineups you're rolling out. But here are some more top targets for me this week, in no particular order:

• Tommy Fleetwood ($8,100 DK, $10,400 FD) | High end GPP play

• Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300 DK, $10,100 FD) | GPP target, possible cash play

• Jimmy Walker ($7,300 DK, $9,800 FD) | Cash & GPP | Better DK bargain

• Patrick Reed ($8,500 DK, $11,300 FD) | GPP target

• Jon Rahm ($9,500 DK, $11,800 FD) | Could be lowest owned ‘stud’

• Branden Grace ($8,400 DK, $10,000 FD) | Ideal mid-range cut equity cash play

Top Golfer to Avoid

Here I’ll give one guy who I won’t be looking to take in many, if any, of my lineups.

Tiger Woods ($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD)

I feel like the easy pick for this would be Sergio, considering his very rough current form, but I’ll venture on to a bit more of a risky player to fade with Tiger. This could very well back fire and I’m sure I will roll at least one Tiger lineup out, but in a Major such as the U.S. Open, a lot more non-seasoned DFS players will come out of the woodwork and the first name they will click on is “Tiger Woods”. On a Par 70 that stretches as far as Shinnecock Hills, Tiger is going to need to use his driver quite a bit. Going the “less than driver” approach just won’t be viable if you’re looking to move up the leaderboard. While he is 18th in the field in driving distance, he is a paltry 81st in driving accuracy. You don’t want to find yourself errant off the tee very much with the menacing knee-high fescue laying right beside these fairways. If Tiger gets his driver going this week, look out, because his approach game ranks 3rd in the field and his putter can get hot at any moment, but I won’t have a lot of shares of him this week.

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Good luck this week, guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's hot takes.

Thanks for reading!

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