Top PGA Plays - The BMW Championship ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

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The 2018 BMW Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! The FedEx Cup Playoffs are narrowing down to the final two events and Bryson DeChambeau once again reeled in the hardware in back-to-back weeks at the Dell Technologies Championship. He has certainly picked an excellent time of the season to reach top form! The field has been trimmed down to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings for the BMW Championship. The top 30 in the FEC standings after this event will move on to the TOUR Championship, taking place September 20th through the 23rd at East Lake GC in Atlanta, GA. Check the official FedEx Cup standings to see what players will need to make a last minute push to surge inside the top 30.

This year the BMW Championship rotates to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, PA. Aronimink GC is a Par 70 set-up that plays at about 7,200 yards. The course last hosted PGA Tour events in 2010 & 2011 for the AT&T National but has since been redesigned in 2016, so course history won’t be of much help this week. The fairways here were widened in the redesign, so players have the option to be a bit more aggressive off the tee. The rough is fairly thick but not ultra penalizing and golfers should be able to wiggle out of trouble a good bit. The bentgrass green sizes at Aronimink GC have also been increased, allowing us to put more emphasis on proximity over greens hit in regulation. A major part of the course renovation included over 100 bunkers being added throughout the course. And in total, Aronimink sports 176 bunkers, so looking at guys who have a solid sand save percentage might not be a bad idea as well. Overall, I think we should see top end ball strikers succeed here and a very good chance we see some low scores by the end of the week.

The green at the Par 4, 11th hole at Aronimink GC

With only 70 players in the field, there will be no cut and everyone will play all four rounds, barring a withdrawal or disqualification. With the smaller field, I will be hitting on fewer players than usual and also doing away with my cash and GPP star ratings. I believe this week is better approached from a GPP perspective, but nothing wrong with throwing out a cash line if that’s more your preference.

Weather ⛅️

With only 70 players in the field, tee times aren’t so spread out as they typically are, so there's not much of an advantage to looking to stack AM/PM or PM/AM waves. The first groups will tee-off at 11:19 am ET with the last groups teeing off at 1:20 pm ET. But still, keep an eye on the weather for the first couple days. Friday could present potential delays with some undesirable scattered thunderstorms rolling through.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg.) | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 20%

4. Proximity to Hole on Approach Shots (Prox.) | 15%

5. Sand Save Percentage (SS%) | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Dustin Johnson (DK: $11,600 | FD: $12,400)

I usually try not to include DJ as a guy I write in-depth about just because it seems like somewhat of a cop-out, but this week I’ll personally have more exposure to the world’s #1 golfer than I have had in the previous two playoff events. Johnson has won the BMW Championship twice and has two more top 10’s thrown in with his seven appearances for this tournament. DJ can own virtually any course but I really love how Aronimink sets up for him. He ranks #1 in four out of five of my key stats this week: SG: BS, Proximity, P4 Avg, and BoB%. The only weakness in the key stats would be his 43rd ranking in the field in Sand Save %, but if everything else clicks with his game, I doubt he’ll be playing too many shots from the bunkers. He’s a 9:1 favorite to win and easily comes in #1 overall in my player model. In a week where some talented golfers are going to be priced down, I think you should be able to afford DJ without sacrificing too much in the remainder of your lineup.

Brooks Koepka (DK: $10,500 | FD: $12,100)

You really want to hit on the high salary options you roll with this week and Koepka is as capable as anyone to score a ton of birdies here. His tie for 12th place last week marked his worst finish in a month, so if that can almost be considered his floor, you have to love him on this course. He’s successfully shot under 70 in 14 of his last 16 rounds. Look for Brooks to be another guy who takes advantage of these wide fairways to set up for a ton of birdie looks. He’s 11th in the field in P4 Avg. and 5th in BoB%. Roll out Koepka with confidence as a 14:1 favorite.

Mid-Range Targets

Francesco Molinari (DK: $8,800 | FD: $10,800)

After missing the cut at The Northern Trust, his first MC since early May (The Players), Molinari elected to take the week off for last week’s Dell Technologies Championship since he was already in very good position in the FEC standings. He’ll enter this week on nearly two weeks rest and is in a prime bounce back spot. On a course that should allow premiere ball strikers to shine, Molinari should excel nicely (4th in field in SG: BS). In his past nine worldwide starts, he has finishes of T6 or better in six of them (including three wins and two runner-ups). The upside he brings to the table cannot be understated, and between his MC at The Northern Trust and withdrawal from last week, we get him at a relatively depressed salary. I’m curious to see where his ownership lands but he should make for a great GPP target and a major threat to land inside the top 5 as a 28:1 favorite to win.

Henrik Stenson (DK: $7,600 | FD: $10,300)

Stenson was one of my favorite mid-season cash targets as he would routinely land inside the top 25 almost weekly. His game has since hit somewhat of a rough patch in recent weeks as he has only found himself inside the top 25 once in his last five events (T20 at the Wyndham Championship). Of course, there’s been worry around his elbow injury for a little while now, but if he’s confident enough to play with it, then I like him as a low owned GPP target for this week. Because he had so much success throughout the season, it’s no surprise he grades out 4th in my stat model for this week. He’s an elite ball striker ranking 2nd in SG: BS, 3rd in Proximity, 9th in P4 Avg., and 15th in SS%. His BoB% isn’t eye popping by any means (50th in field) but I’m willing to take him as a high-risk-high-reward GPP play this week in some line-ups and I don’t expect many people to be on him. He’s also 60th in FEC standings, so if he wants to compete at East Lake in a couple weeks for the TOUR Championship, he’ll need a huge finish here.

Low Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak (DK: $6,900 | FD: $7,700)

For these low priced guys, there are definitely safer routes to go, but looking at more of a GPP approach, I want to find low owned golfers in this range that present some solid upside. Kokrak pops up as one of these options. He’s actually 13th in the field in DraftKings scoring in the past five events, averaging just over 79 DK points per outing. Last week he got hot over his last 36 holes shooting 8-under and ended up in a tie at 24th with some elite company like Justin Thomas, Tiger Woods, Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay. In a week where he is guaranteed to play four rounds, I think the scoring upside is clearly there for him. Kokrak is one of the longer hitters in the field, averaging just under 310 yards off the tee. He’s going to be able to score well on the Par 5's (13th in P5 BoB% at 50.3%) and has an overall BoB% of 22.2% -- good for 25th in the field. He’s priced as the 46th and 54th most expensive option on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively, so I love him as a cheap GPP flyer.

Keith Mitchell (DK: $6,500 | FD: $7,300)

Checking in at nearly the dead minimum salary on both sites is Keith Mitchell. This man is the epitome of boom or bust, but much like Kokrak, he is someone who can hit it a looooong way (313.2 yds/drive - 5th in field) and can therefore take advantage of these wider fairways. He’s also coming off a solo 20th place finish at last week’s Dell Technologies Championship after shooting 11-under over his final 54 holes. Simply put, he’s another cheap player we can look to carry a lot of birdie making upside. He’s 14th in the field in BoB% and should gain shots on the field on the Par 5's as well -- ranking 10th in the field in P5 BoB%. He makes a great stars and scrubs piece for GPP builds.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Justin Rose (DK: $11,200 | FD: $11,600) | The only player in this field who has won on this course before (2010 AT&T National). Bounced back in a big way with the 2nd place finish last week.

- Justin Thomas (DK: $10,700 | FD: $11,800) | A T24 last week is definitely considered a disappointment for him. Look for him to let it fly this week. He’s 2nd in my overall player model.

- Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $10,000 | FD: $12,000) | I guess after back-to-back wins he has to be mentioned somewhere in here, eh? I find this price hard to swallow considering the field, but I’ll be damned if he’s not in my player pool. Gotta ride the form.

Mid Priced

- Tony Finau (DK: $9,500 | FD: $10,800) | Three top 10’s in his past four starts. When will the win come his way?

- Rickie Fowler (DK: $9,000 | FD: $10,200) | His first start in almost a month since a partial tear in his oblique. Is he 100%? Probably not. But sitting at 26th in the FEC standings, he needs to play well to move on to East Lake in two weeks.

- Tyrrell Hatton ($DK: $7,700 | FD: $9,200) | Read my mention of him last week to see why I’m still good with rolling him this week. Disappointing final round at the DTC though. He could have taken the hardware home.

Low Priced

- C.T. Pan (DK: $6,900 | FD: $8,300) | Pan should be one of the chalkier value guys but a 4th place and 2nd place finish in his last three events shows his upside. Nothing wrong at all with rolling him out.

- Chris Kirk (DK: $6,700 | FD: $8,300) | The second chalk option in the value tier. Kirk is a good bet to pay off his salary this week.

- Emiliano Grillo (DK: $7,400 | FD: $8,400) | An inspiring T7 last week. Let’s see if the mid-season form that made him a perennial cash play is back.

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Good luck this week, guys! 

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