Top PGA Plays - CIMB Classic ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2018 CIMB Classic Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to the first edition of the LineStar Weekly Drive for the PGA Tour’s 2018-19 season! We get back into things on the second event of the season as golfers travel out to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the CIMB Classic. This will be a small field of 78 players with no cut, so adjust your DFS approach accordingly! Also, remember that this event and DFS contests will begin at 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday!

The course for this week is TPC Kuala Lumpur (West) which is a very short Par 72 that only extends 7,005 yards. It’s one of the easiest courses on Tour with very get-able fairways and greens which result in winning scores typically reaching into the -20’s, so prepare for a birdie-fest. One new defense this course may present to golfers is the recent switch over from slow rolling paspalum greens to firm and fast Bermuda greens this year. Overall though, this will very much be a second shot track and strokes gained on approach as well as birdie or better percentage will be my recommended top stats to key in on by a decent margin. As I note with other no-cut events, in GPPs it will be hard not to have a duplicated lineup unless you leave some salary on the table or take some more unorthodox plays. So don’t be afraid to go a little off-the-wall if you’re looking to take down a big tournament. I also personally don’t go in too heavy on the bankroll for events like these but I won’t tell you what you should do with your money! Just approach with caution!

TPC Kuala Lumpur Layout

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

5. Proximity to Hole (Proximity) | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $11.7k | FD: $13k)

JT is easily the best player in this field, evidenced by his 5:1 odds, and adding him as a recommended play is not any sort of “hot take” this week. Rostering him in lineups means you’ll have to take a long shot or two elsewhere, but it is certainly hard to justify fading him altogether. Thomas is the back-to-back CIMB Classic champion from 2015 and 2016 with a 17th place finish last year. He went 49-under in his two wins here, so to say he can navigate this course well would be an understatement. In this field he is 2nd in SG: App, 11th in SG: OTT, 1st in BoB%, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, and 21st in Proximity (all stats are currently being pulled from last season by the way). If you’re playing cash this week, playing Thomas may add too much risk elsewhere in your lineup but he has to be considered a top GPP target despite high predicted ownership.

Gary Woodland (DK: $9.7k | FD: $10.5k)

On such a short course, Woodland should have a great advantage this week as the longest driver in the field, averaging 313.4 yards/drive last season. I doubt he’ll be looking to bomb it on every hole and instead focus a bit more on fairway accuracy but he should still be set up with shorter irons and wedges than most anyone else in the field. He also ended last season in great form with three finishes of 12th or better in three of his last five starts. In this field, he’s 11th in SG: App, 1st in SG: OTT, 11th in BoB%, 3rd in Par 5 BoB% and 23rd in Proximity. In his past three starts here Woodland had finishes of 28th, 56th and 56th but he had two back-to-back runner up finishes at TPC Kuala Lumpur in 2013 and 2014, so you know he can have success here. I really like the form right now and in a weaker field where he is guaranteed to play 72 holes, he has a lot of birdie making upside and I would bank on an eagle or two as well. He is a 20:1 favorite and comes in ranked 4th in my player model.

Mid-Range Targets

CT Pan (DK: $8k | FD: $8.5k)

Pan had a very strong close to his 2017-18 PGA Tour season, finishing 20th or better in 6 of his final 11 starts including a T4 and a T2 finish within his last four starts. Statistically, he doesn’t wow you with eye-popping numbers but he is just an all around solid iron player and this shorter course should suit him well. He’s 25th in SG: App, 28th in SG: OTT, 27th in BoB%, and 28th in Proximity. I just really like his chances to grind into a top 10 finish (+400 to finish top 10 per Bovada) as he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and is 11th in the field in Bogey Avoidance. He is a 40:1 shot to win and he carded a T17 in his first trip to this course last season and a similar finish would pay off value at his current price.

Sam Ryder (DK: $7.7k | FD: $7.8k)

After his impressive T4 finish last week at the Safeway Open, I would expect Ryder to be a popular pick this week but it is for sure warranted. He comes in ranked 13th in SG: App, 30th in SG: OTT, 15th in BoB%, 32nd in Par 5 BoB% and 10th in Proximity. Ryder is an accurate driver and really solid iron and wedge player who profiles as another nice “course fit” option. He’s also far too underpriced on FanDuel as the 43rd most expensive golfer (25th on DraftKings).

Low Priced Targets

Stewart Cink (DK: $7.2k | FD: $8.7k)

I simply have to include one of my favorite “old guy” plays with Stewart Cink. As an elite iron & wedge player, the shorter course should play to his advantage, as evidenced by finishes of 13th, 17th and 11th in three of his last four trips to this course. He ranks 3rd in SG: App, 41st in SG: OTT, 33rd in BoB%, 46th in Par 5 BoB%, and 18th in Proximity. Obviously, the big outlier listed there would be his strokes gained on approach, my top rated stat this week. I think you can fire him up as a great bet to finish inside the top 20 once again, which is some suitable value.

Jason Kokrak (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.4k)

Kokrak somewhat quietly had a strong finish to his 2018-19 season with five top 25’s in his final eight events with just one missed cut. He is a golfer who will regularly drive it 310+ yards and put himself in position for plenty of birdies and some eagle opportunities on these Par 5’s. He stands at 26th in SG: App, 13th in SG: OTT, 7th in BoB%, and 4th in Par 5 BoB%. I somewhat view him as a cheaper Gary Woodland sort of play, though his irons and wedges are not as sharp. I’m not too worried about this being his first start on this course when taking into consideration his nice form to close out last season. Seems like a great guy to target in the lower-mid range.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK: $9.3k | FD: $11.1k) | Back to back 10th place finishes here the past two years. Has some of the best irons in the field.

- Brandt Snedeker (DK: $9.1k | FD: $10.7k) | Should have probably won last week at the Safeway Open. In recent weeks, when he is on, he is really on and he seems a bit discounted particularly on DraftKings.

Mid Priced

- Kyle Stanley (DK: $9k | FD: $9.3k) | Solid form heading in, and as an exceptional iron player, this is the sort of place he can excel at.

- Cameron Smith (DK: $8.4k | FD: $9.7k) | Two 5th place finishes here in three trips. He’s not far removed from his back-to-back third place finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Definite upside here.

Low Priced

- Anirban Lahiri (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.5k) | His 10th and 3rd place finishes here the past two years should likely make him a popular option in this range but I’ll take some shares of Lahiri any time he makes a start on a short course.

- Scott Vincent (DK: $6.5k | FD: $7k) | A relatively unknown golfer on our side of the world but he is ranked 138th in the world, and if you look at his recent finishes on the Asian Tour (scroll to the bottom), he has been killing it. I’ll take some shares at essentially the bare minimum salary.

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That'll wrap it up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck out there guys!