Written by Ryan Humphries

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The 2018 Dell Technologies Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! Last week, Bryson DeChambeau reigned supreme in the PGA Tour’s first event of the playoffs at The Northern Trust. We also saw some surprising missed cuts from the likes of Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Jon Rahm and several others. Those who remained in the top 100 of the FedEx Cup standings earned their way to the second playoff event and are setting up for this week’s Dell Technologies Championship taking place at TPC Boston. Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari have already withdrawn out of the DTC, so with no alternates allowed in the playoffs, we will have a field of 98 players. Of those 98, the top 70 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend. Realistically, we could see only about 15-20 guys miss the cut this week, so consider that when constructing lineups since 6/6 lines will be a lot more common. One other thing to note: this tournament doesn’t start until Friday, as is always the case due to Labor Day weekend, and will have a Monday finish.

Looking at the course, TPC Boston located in Norton, Massachusetts (about 25 miles south of Boston) is a Par 71 that extends 7,342 yards. The tree-lined fairways should be on the easier-to-hit side of things and average golfers should find the short stuff at around a 65% clip. The rough has patches of wispy fescue and, overall, is pretty thick, but often times it can still produce hittable lies and isn't too penalizing. Other hazards include large mounds that were added onto the course in the last redesign, a total of 65 bunkers and four water hazards that are capable of coming into play on about half of the holes. The bentgrass greens appear to be the course’s best defense and will run quick (11.5 on the stimpmeter) and are smaller than average -- targeting good scramblers may be helpful here. Targeting strictly longer hitters could be a popular strategy this week as well, but in my opinion, not completely necessary. There is a drivable Par 4 and all three Par 5's should be reachable in two my the majority of the field. If past events are any indication, the winning score should be in the 17-under range in good conditions, so there is certainly a place for big time birdie makers to shine this week.

In order to advance to next week’s BMW Championship, golfers must be inside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings. Check the standings here to get a look at the guys in about the 65-100 range who should have a little extra motivation to play well this week.

With all that said, let’s get a look at the current weather forecast, the stats I am looking to hone in on and my favorite picks for this week!

Weather ⛅️

As always for PGA weather, we’re looking primarily at the first two rounds (normally Thurs/Fri but as another reminder the first two rounds are Fri/Sat this week) to see if there’s an advantage for the golfers teeing off Friday morning and Saturday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Friday afternoon and Saturday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Wednesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

Friday: Sustained winds around 10 mph much of the day. Wind gusts between 15-20 mph, which could be strongest in the morning. A lot of cloud coverage keeping temperatures in the 70's.

Saturday: Single digit sustained winds all day with gusts hitting around 15 mph. Cloudy with cool temperatures in the high 60's to low 70's.

Overall: There is a good chance rain will move through the area Thursday night, which could soften up the course even more for the Friday AM guys. If they have to deal with slightly higher wind gusts, I would think the rain from the previous night would help negate any disadvantage. Saturday looks like pretty equal conditions from the morning on into the evening. So, too tough to really say either wave has an advantage. Right now, I’m leaning towards “no.” Check closer to first tee though. If the course does get some rain Thursday night and the forecast for Friday morning winds gets reduced, I’d give some AM/PM lineup stacks some solid consideration.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Proximity 175+ Yards | 15%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Scrambling | 15%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $11.4k | FD: $12k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Starting off the stud tier with the 2017 DTC champion, Justin Thomas. JT has been red hot his past few events with a win at the WGC-Bridgestone, a T6 at the PGA Championship and a T8 at last week’s The Northern Trust. Those last two finishes would’ve been better if he had a bit better luck on the greens with his putter. It’s tough not to like someone in this good of form coming back to a course they won at the previous year. Stats wise, Thomas is 4th in the field in SG: App, 12th in Proximity 175+ yards, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 2nd in overall BoB% and 21st in Scrambling. He’s an 11:1 favorite trailing only DJ with the best odds in the field to win. If you’re playing cash this week, he may limit what you can do with the rest of your lineup, but his high probability of a win or a very good chance of a top 5 finish definitely makes him viable. And of course he has to be a top target for GPP builds despite high ownership on him to be very likely.

Rory McIlroy (DK: $10.6k | FD: $11.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

McIlroy has won at TPC Boston twice (2012 and 2016) and comes in more rested than everyone else in the field as he chose to sit out of The Northern Trust. The relatively easy to hit fairways here should suit Rory’s game very well (if the past two wins here weren’t enough of an indication) and of course he's going to be smashing it regularly 330+ yards with likely the strongest driver in the field. He’s only 61st in the field in SG: App but his long irons are very solid ranking 6th in Proximity 175+ yards. He’s 11th in Par 5 BoB%, 29th in overall BoB% and is an elite scrambler ranking 2nd in this field there. He did miss the cut here for the first time last year and hasn’t been ultra-consistent by any means this season, but sitting at 14:1 odds, the two time champ here has to be considered an elite GPP option.

Brooks Koepka (DK: $11k } FD: $12.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Hot on the heels of #1 Dustin Johnson in the Official World Golf Rankings is #2 Brooks Koepka, who has been really exciting to watch this season. Koepka has been just as hot as JT when it comes to his last three events: A solo 5th at the WGC-Bridgestone, a Major win at the PGA Championship and a T8 at last week’s The Northern Trust. Brooks had a share of the 36-hole lead and went on to have a disappointing weekend losing 4.6 strokes putting to the field. So not much to worry about with his poor weekend finish, as anyone can lose it a bit with the putter from time to time. Similar to McIlroy, Brooks hasn’t been elite in his approach game on the season (58th in SG: App) but has had great long irons, ranking 7th in the field in Proximity 175+ yards. We can expect a ton of scoring from him with his 4th ranked Par 5 BoB% and 5th rank in overall BoB%. He also profiles as a strong scrambler, ranking 17th in the field there. If you’ve been watching these star-studded events this season, I don’t have to tell you how well Brooks tends to show up. So fire up the 12:1 favorite up with confidence.

Mid-Range Targets

Patrick Cantlay (DK: $9k | FD: $10k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Sure to be one of the most popular plays of the week, Cantlay makes a great case for himself. He has four top 15 finishes in his last five events and joined Koepka and Thomas at T8 last week shooting an 11-under. His form is top notch and it helps that he had a 13th place finish in his first trip to TPC Boston last year. Looking at his stats, he is all around rock solid in nearly every category I’m honing in on this week. He’s 21st in SG: App, 15th in Proximity 175+ yards, 20th in Par 5 BoB%, and 18th in overall BoB%. His 48th ranking in Scrambling is his lone blemishing statistic but he still comes in 12th in my overall stat model and 2nd in my player model (which takes into account course history, recent form, DFS scoring last 20 rounds and my key stats). In cash games, I don’t see any reason in fading him as he’ll probably be around 50% owned or so. I could understand if you want to lower exposure in GPPs in case he has a lackluster week, however. Cantlay is a 28:1 favorite.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $8.5k | FD: $11.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Fleetwood is more of a DraftKings play as his price (as the 16th most expensive golfer) is just too low there. He’s the 9th most expensive golfer on FanDuel and still in play, but I like the DK value more. Fleetwood can be a bit tilting to roster at times, as he will look great one round and then shoot 3-over the following day, which ultimately keeps him out of contending a lot on Sundays. But in the end, he’s often a really good bet to grab a top 25 finish. He does have three top 5’s on the PGA Tour this year, so it’s not like he has zero upside either. Tommy is an elite Tee-to-Green golfer, and heading into this week, I’m confident he’ll be able to knock a lot of birdies in (6th in Par 5 BoB% and 7th in overall BoB%). And if he can avoid that one “bugaboo” round, I don’t see why he couldn’t be teeing off late on Monday. At 28:1 odds to win, he’s great for cash games (DraftKings specific) and a solid tournament target where I don’t think a ton of ownership will be on him.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK: $7.7k | FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I’m really liking Hatton as an “ignore the stats” kinda guy this week. He carded a T20 finish last week after firing the round of the week at The Northern Trust, a 64 on Sunday. That 20th place finish marks his fifth top 20 in his last seven events and he has the 10th best form rank in the field. He mentioned on Twitter that before shooting that 64 on Sunday, he went out and bought himself a brand new putter and… well I guess something clicked for him! He currently sits 71st in the FedEx Cup standings, so you better believe he’s gunning for a solid finish to stay alive in the playoffs. Hatton makes for a great GPP target and is sporting 55:1 odds.

Low Priced Targets

Kevin Na (DK: $7.4k | FD: $8.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Na was a bright spot among some admittedly bad calls that I had last week (Rose, Dahmen, Tiger, Rafa) so I can’t do him the disservice and not roll with him again this week. Na has some spotty history here at TPC Boston but he did card a T6 his last trip out here in 2017. With a very strong T15 last week, I like how this course fits him once again where a solid approach game and long irons will be key. Na is 26th in SG: App, 8th in Proximity 175+ yards, 40th in Par 5 BoB%, 25th in overall BoB% and 7th in Scrambling. I like him to keep his good form rolling into this week and would trust him as an upside affordable cash and GPP target. His current odds are set at 66:1.

Byeong-Hun An (DK: $7k | FD: $8.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m having déjà vu of writing up An and Na together in the past… I guess I like how their games correlate on certain courses. Regardless, An has cooled off a bit since his T2 at the RBC Canadian Open a month ago but he is riding a streak of seven consecutive made cuts and just one missed cut in his last eleven starts. He ironed out a T40 finish last week and has shown his upside with his two runner up finishes this year. He’s not the most prolific birdie maker (65th in BoB% in this field) but he excels nicely in many other categories, especially when you take into account his price for this week. An is 23rd in SG: App, 22nd in Proximity 175+ yards, 31st in Par 5 BoB% and 22nd in Scrambling. He just shapes up as a guy who is about $500 too cheap in DFS and, while he’s not a major threat to win, (125:1 odds) I think you can make a great case for him to sneak into the top 25 and at low ownership. He lost just over seven strokes putting last week, so even with just an average week putting, he would have found himself in the top 10. Just about everything else in his game was clicking, so chalk him up this week as a viable cash punt as he’s a safe bet to make the cut and pay off his salary, and one of those GPP options that could bank you some big bucks if he puts it together with the flat stick.

Bronson Burgoon (DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

It’s pretty easy to see in Burgoon’s event logs that he’s quite the ‘boom or bust’ type of player. In his past ten starts he has five missed cuts throughout but a T11 last week, and a T2, T30, T6 and T16 mixed in with the five events he’s made the cut at. In a week where only about 15-20 guys will miss the cut, you have to like Burgoon’s scoring upside if he makes the weekend. Which, sitting at 73rd in the FEC standings, he’ll need to have a solid week if he wants his playoff run to continue. Also, down in this price range it’s hard to find a guy with his birdie making upside who also has a solid iron game. Burgoon ranks 35th in SG: App, very good long irons, ranking 14th in Proximity 175+ yards, 21st in Par 5 BoB% and 26th in overall BoB%. He’s not a great scrambler (92nd in field) but hits 68.6% of GIR (34th in field) so hopefully he won’t have to do a ton of work from the bunkers and whatnot. But really he’s the 57th (DK) and 78th (FD) most expensive option this week, so if he just makes the cut, he’s paying off his salary. And as I’ve pointed out, when he gets four full rounds in, he’s been scoring a ton. Don’t think you need to go here for cash but love him in tournaments.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Dustin Johnson (DK: $11.6k | FD: $12.5k) | Cash & GPP | My token mention of him so no one has to ask why I don’t like DJ this week. But I don’t like him this week as much as other weeks for various reasons. Too scary to fade, though.

- Jordan Spieth (DK: $10k | FD: $11.6k) | GPP Only | Still frustrating to watch some rounds but his round three 64 last week shows what he’s capable of at any point. Runner up here last year.

- Justin Rose (DK: $9.3k | FD: $11.5k) | GPP Only | Burned a lot of people last week, myself included, but unless something is physically wrong with him, you can’t 100% dismiss him for a couple bad rounds of golf.

- Jon Rahm (DK: $9.1k | FD: $11k) | GPP Only | Wider fairways and more of a birdie-fest will suit his game more here this week. 3rd in Par 5 BoB% & overall BoB%. 4th place here last year.

Mid Priced

- Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $8.9k | FD: $11k) | Cash & GPP | His game is shaping up nicely and has now shot in the 60's in 10 of his last 12 rounds. I always worry about the pressure on his shoulders the bigger the stage gets for him though.

- Tony Finau (DK: $8.8k | FD: $10.7k) | Cash & GPP | The solo 2nd place finish last week and looking to earn his spot on The Ryder Cup team.

- Patrick Reed (DK: $8.4k | FD: $11.1k) | GPP Only | Elite course history the past three years with finishes of 4th, 5th and 6th. Seems to be due for a high finish.

- Gary Woodland (DK: $7.7k | FD: $9.2k) | Cash & GPP | Excellent ball striker and long iron player. Has finished 18th or better here the last three years.

- Brandt Snedeker (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.3k) | GPP Only | The late WD last week keeps his price down. If he’s 100% for this week, he is a major threat to land in the top 10.

Low Priced

- Charley Hoffman (DK: $7.3k | FD: $9k) | GPP Only | Solid T20 last week and currently sitting at 75th in the FEC standings. He’ll be motivated for a strong finish this week.

- Stewart Cink (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.5k) | Cash & GPP | I don’t expect Cink to play as poorly as he did last week and like where his price is at now. Had a 12th place finish here last year.

- Ryan Palmer (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.1k) | GPP Only | Let’s see if he keeps the good form rolling after last week's T5. Has had solid success at TPC Boston.

- Kevin Tway (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.9k) | GPP Only | Wider fairways should help his bomber style upside. Always a fun punt to take a shot on.

- Jason Kokrak (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.6k) | Cash & GPP | Similar to Tway, another long hitter who could benefit from wider fairways. I’d trust him for cash as he’s also 15th in GIR. 8th place finish here in 2016.

- Joel Dahmen (DK: $6.4k | FD: $7.1k) | GPP Only | Now priced at basically the bare minimum after burning a bunch of people last week, still grades out well for this week, but just use him as a GPP punt.

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Good luck this week, guys! 

Don't forget to join in on this week's LineStar Freeroll here! And don't forget to use the LineStar avatar to double your prize!

And once again, feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS 

Thanks for reading!