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Get down to the LineStar PGA Chat for the lowdown from experts.

The 2018 John Deere Classic Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! Last week, we saw Kevin Na notch his first Tour win since October of 2011. It was good to see him get another career win, as I noted in last week's newsletter that his stats were just too good for him to not be considered in at least one of your DFS lineups. He finally broke through from just looking great on paper. Now we are about a week out from golf’s third major, The Open Championship, teeing off in Scotland. As per usual, the week before a Major, we will see a lot of the top guys resting up or they may already be over in Europe practicing for next week, or participating in this week’s European Tour event, The Scottish Open. That being said, there’s still PGA golf being played this week and plenty of money to be made and tournaments to take down, so let’s get into the course and the field of players who will be taking it on!

This week, the PGA Tour travels to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. With a Major on the horizon and the Scottish Open also taking place on the EURO Tour, we only have six of the World’s Top 60 golfers attending this event. There’s still plenty at stake as guys vie for a piece of the $5.8 million dollar purse, valuable FedEx Cup points and the final spot in The Open for the highest finisher not already qualified. It'd be great to see some drama play out on Sunday for that last qualifying position!

This is a full field event (156 golfers) and top 70 plus ties will make the cut. The course is a Par 71 which stretches 7,268 yards with bentgrass greens & fairways and Kentucky bluegrass rough. It is a very scenic and naturally focused course that is devoid of any real estate. The fairways are some of the easiest on Tour to hit (about a 70% field average) and we will most definitely see plenty of scoring as TPC Deere Run profiles as another “birdie-fest” track, ranking as one of the easiest courses on Tour. Dating back to 2009, the average winning score comes in at 21 under par! Since the course is a Par 71, players will have one less Par 4 and one more Par 5 to take advantage of and further lower the numbers on their scorecards. While Par 4 scoring will remain a key stat as in previous weeks, Par 5 scoring will be almost equally as important as it should account for close to a third of DFS scoring. As usual, approach shots will be vital to get into scoring position while we try to find as many birdie makers as we can. We also have plenty of course history to look back on and, overall, I think this should be a great event to watch as it takes place on a beautiful course.

This will be a tricky field to breakdown, particularly players priced in the mid and low ranges. So without further adieu, let’s get into the weather, key stats to focus in on and my picks for the week!

Weather 🌦️

No glaring weather concerns seem to be popping up from the current forecast. Winds look like they will be manageable throughout the week, rarely hitting double digits. Most afternoons will be pretty warm with temps hitting the high 80's and low 90's, but the humidity should stay low enough where it should not be an issue for these guys. It does seem like scattered thunderstorms could pop up at a few different points Friday through Sunday, but here’s to hoping it’s nothing that will cause any major delays. Of course, weather in the Midwest can change at any time. This is being written early Tuesday morning, so be sure to check the forecast for Silvis, IL closer to Thursday for a clearer picture of how things will play out. For now, I’ll say that neither AM/PM nor PM/AM waves have any sort of notable advantage.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%)

3. Par 4 Average

4. Par 5 BoB%

5. Bogey Avoidance

High Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400 DK | $12,100 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Not exactly a surprise to see DeChambeau up top here. He’s the reigning champion of the John Deere Classic and has been on fire in recent weeks with a win at The Memorial, a T25 at The U.S. Open and a T9 at The Travelers a couple weeks back to notch his 7th top 10 of the season. For my stat rankings, he comes in 1st overall in the field pretty handily, as he is 4th in the field in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 11th in Par 4 Avg., 1st in Par 5 BoB% and 10th in Bogey Avoidance. He’s taken an astronomical leap in his game this year and is scoring in droves. He’s 2nd in the field in DK scoring the last 5 events, averaging 78.4 points per outing. It may be tough to fit him in cash lineups without going a bit risky in the punt range (and given this field, the punts are pretty grisly) but should definitely be a top target for tournaments. He’s tied with Molinari for the best Vegas odds to win at 10:1 but comes at a slight discount in comparison.

Zach Johnson ($11,200 DK | $11,700 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If DeChambeau is 1A in my overall favorite plays, then ZJ has to be 1B. Johnson is the epitome of a “course horse,” having made 11/12 cuts on this track including a win and *six* top 5 finishes. Here are his finishing positions on this course starting with last year and going back to 2011: 5th, 34th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, and 3rd. It's pretty rare to see a guy dominate a course that much these days. On the year, he’s only missed one cut in 16 events and his stats also correlate very well for him. He’s 8th in SG: App, 12th in BoB%, 9th in Par 4 Avg., and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. He’s only 40th in Par 5 BoB% but is 18th in Par 5 Average and I fully expect him to go fairly low on those holes this week. Unsurprisingly, he comes in 3rd in the Vegas department, boasting 12:1 odds. I marked him at four stars for GPPs because, while he has had crazy success here, on the year, he is somewhat struggling to really break through for a victory with no wins and only one top 5 that took place at the Valero Texas Open nearly three months ago. He will be one of the highest owned guys in cash and GPP but he could be worth lowering exposure to in tournaments, just in case he doesn’t end the week with a great finish. He's great for cash though, if you can afford him.

Kyle Stanley ($9,700 DK | $10,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I love Stanley this week largely because I think he will go overlooked among the guys he is priced similarly to that will probably be more popular like Stricker, Niemann, Moore, Kirk and Hadley (who I happen to all really like). That’s definitely not the only reason though, as he comes in 6th in my stat rankings. He’s 27th in SG: App, 11th in BoB%, 5th in Par 4 Avg., and 21st in Par 5 BoB%. The major knock on him in the past has been the amount of strokes he’d lose to the field in putting. But this year, he has figured something out with the flat stick and is 21st in the field in SG: Putting. I always mention that putting is a very unreliable metric to predict week to week. But it's pretty clear when a guy takes a big step forward with their performance on the greens and goes from bad or streaky to a legitimately solid and reliable putter like Stanley has done. The 20:1 Vegas odds could easily hit on him this week.

Mid-Range Targets

Brian Gay ($8,600 DK | $10,000 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Outside of a top 10 finish in 2011, Gay hasn’t found a ton of success here at TPC Deere Run. However, you can’t argue with the fact that he has ripped off seven consecutive made cuts that include four top 20 finishes. In DFS golf, looking at current form is huge and Gay has one of the best stretches of scorecards coming into this week and he is 7th in the field in DK scoring the last five events. Stats wise, he ranks inside the top 25 of BoB%, Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Avg. He’s 33rd in Par 5 BoB% and carries one of the better putting games, ranking 15th in SG: Putting and 2nd in Putting Avg. I don’t love him for GPPs just because I think his price is basically on the highest side of what it should be and he hasn’t had crazy success on this course. But he does make a comfortable mid-range cash game play in my mind, and is 18th overall in my player model for the week.

Low Priced Targets

Corey Conners ($7,300 DK | $9,200 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Conners has just one missed cut in his last eight events and at 125:1 odds to win, he’s one of my favorite low-owned cheap long-shots to win. His rankings in most of my key stats are very solid: he’s 15th in SG: App, 29th in Par 4 Avg., 43rd in BoB%, 32nd in Bogey Avoidance, 9th in GIR but 80th in Par 5 BoB%. The thing with Conners is his BoB% would skyrocket if he could just find his putter. He’s an excellent tee-to-green player (12th SG: T2G) but he loses so many strokes to the field putting (101st in field SG: Putting). But any golfer that is good enough to be on the PGA Tour can shake the monkey off their back and get their putter going, and if Corey does that this week, he could wind up being a great tournament sleeper. A lot of approach shots will come in the 125-150 yard and 150-175 yard ranges this week, where he ranks 12th and 30th respectively. Unfortunately, he’s probably a little too pricey on FanDuel (19th most expensive option) as opposed to DraftKings (40th most expensive) but that should drive his ownership even lower if you’re willing to take the risk.

Dylan Meyer ($7,000 DK | $8,300 FD)

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Admittedly, I don’t know a ton about this kid and this is a complete tournament punt, but he’s carded two top 20 finishes in his last three PGA events including a T20 at the U.S. Open and a T17 at the Quicken Loans National two weeks ago, with a missed cut at the Travelers in between. And while he didn’t make the cut here, he did at least play here last year in his PGA Tour debut. He played for the University of Illinois golf team, so you have to assume he is familiar with this course. Mainly, I’m just intrigued by the guy and have heard some buzz about him among other folks in the industry. I'm interested to see what he can do this week and I’ll definitely have some slight tournament exposure.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week, but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me this week, in no particular order:

- Joaquin Niemann ($10,400 DK | $11,400 FD) | Cash & GPP | I wrote him up last week and he didn’t disappoint. Kid has some serious game. 1st in field in SG: App, BoB%, Par 4 Avg. and DK points last 5 events -- yes 1st in all those stats. Top target across the board.

- Chesson Hadley ($9,500 DK | $10,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | Another great all around option at the top. His game from this year should translate well at TPC Deere Run. 2nd in my stat rankings.

- Joel Dahmen ($7,600 DK | $9,000 FD) | Cash | Will be a popular mid-range cash play. Looks great on paper but could be a candidate to fade in tournaments.

- Francesco Molinari ($11,600 DK | $12,200 FD) | GPP | Never thought I’d see $12k Molinari but here we are. One of the hottest golfers in the world right now. I do wonder if he will be looking ahead to The Open next week if he starts out slow.

- Scott Brown ($7,100 DK | $7,300 FD) | GPP | Dirt cheap, especially on FanDuel. 5/5 cuts made on this course including four top 25's and a 5th place finish in 2014. Makes for a nice course history tournament flyer.

- Bronson Burgoon ($7,500 DK | $8,000 FD) | GPP | I’ll be honest, I don’t think I’ve ever played Burgoon in any lineups before... ever, but he’s 7th overall in my player model -- most notably 17th in SG: App, 8th in Par 5 Avg. & 19th in BoB%. Might give him a shot this week.

- Wesley Bryan ($9,100 DK | $9,000 FD) | Cash & GPP | Better FD value. One of my personal favorite golfers (Go Gamecocks!) but also has shown promise on this course and brings in good form and a hot putter. 8th place in 2016, 3rd place last year. Ranks 5th in my overall player model.

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Good luck this week, guys! Feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament, or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's hot takes!

Thanks for reading!