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The Memorial Tournament 2018 Preview ⛳️

This week we go out to Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, founded and designed by The Golden Bear himself, Jack Nicklaus. Muirfield is a Par 72 that stretches 7,392 yards and, with it’s fairly generous fairways, this track can see both bombers and guys who may be shorter off the tee excel. It is most definitely a second shot track, so strokes gained on approach shots will be the top key statistic to hone in on again this week.

The field, being an invitational tournament, will include 120 golfers, which is smaller than a normal Tour event that typically features a 144 to 156 man field. However, the top 70 (including ties) cut rule is still in place here so there is room to get a little riskier since a larger portion of the field will make the cut. The Memorial, which features eight of the top 10 and 32 of the world’s top 50 golfers, can feel much like a PGA Major. It's considered by many to be the final “tune-up” event before the U.S. Open, which takes place in two weeks. 

Weather 🌦️

Unlike last week, it looks like weather will play a part in how this event plays out -- particularly the first two rounds. Current forecasts show scattered thunderstorms very likely throughout the day on into the evening Wednesday, so greens should play soft for the opening round. Thursday also has a very high chance of scattered storms for both AM & PM golfers, but it looks like the morning wave has a lesser chance of precipitation to deal with as well as lower winds overall (as opposed to 15-20 mph gusts for the afternoon wave). So, if you want to potentially look towards stacking players teeing off early in the first round, that could be a viable strategy. However, for the second round on Friday, it looks like it will be mostly dry in the morning with chances for rain vaulting up to about 80% around noon.

This is being written early Tuesday morning, so my best advice here is to check forecasts closer to Thursday morning and make your decisions then. But, in general, I would expect play to continue despite the rain, with the possibility of delays due to lightning or more heavy downpour. 

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (BoB%)

3. Par 4 Average

4. Proximity 150-175 yards + 175-200 yards

5. Sand Save %

Lineup Foundation Targets

Justin Thomas ($10,300 DK, $12,100 FD)

JT is definitely looking like my big spend guy this week. Thomas comes in on three weeks rest after a T11 at The Players earlier this month and usurping Dustin Johnson as the World’s #1 ranked golfer. He is my personal pick to ship this event. He holds 14:1 Vegas odds to win outright, is 3rd in the field in Par 4 average, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, 5th in SG: App, 7th in driving distance and 1st in Proximity shots of 200+ yards. Thomas had a 4th place finish here last year and while he doesn’t have extensive course history, I believe he is well worth paying up for this week.

Emiliano Grillo ($8,400 DK, $10,400 FD)

The secret has been out on Grillo for a few weeks now as one of the world’s most promising up-and-coming golfers. I wrote him up in this segment last week and he came through with a 3rd place finish shooting all four rounds under 70 including bookend rounds of 64. His price has crept up a bit more but I believe he will be one of the most popular options for The Memorial. His stout, overall well-rounded, play will make him a cash game staple this week. The form is clearly there. He is 4th in the field in DraftKings scoring over the last 5 events, 11th on SG:App, 13th in both Par 4 scoring and Sand Save %. With 16/16 cuts made on the season and 40:1 Vegas odds, I see very little reason to think he shouldn’t be in the top 20 come Sunday.

Bryson DeChambeau ($7,700 DK, $10,300 FD)

DeChambeau is still seeking that elusive win this year but one of the most erratic “boom or bust” golfers in recent seasons has turned a huge corner this year and has really earned a name for himself. I was thinking of adding more of a “course horse” guy like Matt Kuchar, Marc Leishman, or Phil Mickelson as my last lineup foundation target but, digging into the numbers, Bryson pops out as just as good or even a better option with a sizable salary discount to those other guys. He is 14th in the field on SG: App, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 BoB%, and 11th in overall BoB%. He comes in 7th in my personal model and the only glaring concern I have is his Sand Save %, as he ranks 101st in the field and bunkers are very prevalent around the greens on this course. Overall though, I like him at his price point as well as his 60:1 outright winning odds. He is a steal on DraftKings in particular.

Top Tournament Targets

Patrick Reed ($8,900 DK, $11,400 FD)

After four straight top 10 finishes (including a Masters win) entering The Players Championship, Reed cooled off in a big way finishing T41 but I believe a lot of that drop-off can be attributed to his putter going cold (55th in SG:Putting at The Players). Putting, as I’ve noted before, is one of the most unpredictable statistical categories to consider when it comes to picking golfers for DFS. That said, Reed comes in 3rd overall in my model as he is extremely solid in his approach shots (9th, 12th and 5th in the field in proximity shots from 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards respectively), resulting in a 23rd overall SG: App ranking, 11th in Par 4 Avg., and 12th in Sand Save %. I believe Reed has the tendency to find himself in tough spots occasionally, but he also has the propensity to make incredible bunker saves and usually has a reliable putter. A big task for him will be avoiding the punishing roughs on this course as he is 102nd in the field in driving accuracy. Vegas has him 35:1. Fire him up in tournaments. 

Bargain Bin 💲🗑️

Byeong-Hun An ($7,800 DK, $8,800 FD)

Let’s keep it going with the two letter last names with An. An is viable on both sites but comes in at a much better value on FanDuel. He had a T15 last week in the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour and, overall, is in solid form. Last year at Muirfield, An reeled in a 25th place finish and an 11th place finish in 2016. He’s hitting very well on his approach shots, ranking 17th in the field in SG: App, 25th in Proximity shots 150-175 yards, 18th in Par 5 BoB%, and 40th in overall BoB%. Nothing eye popping in any particular metric, but An is a rare golfer in that he is both long off the tee (15th in driving distance) and fairly accurate (46th in driving accuracy). His 66:1 Vegas odds are very solid as well and make him worthy of a roster spot.

Robert Streb ($6,600 DK, $7,200 FD)

Let me note, this is an extreme deep dive and a GPP only play in a “stars & scrubs” lineup construction. That said, Streb has played this event in 2014, 2015 and 2016. He’s not only made the cut in all three events, he’s finished T28, T18 and T20 in his most recent appearance in ‘16. While Streb is only 6/19 cuts made on the season, he has cleared back to back cuts and only missed making the cut at The Players three weeks ago due to back-to-back bogeys on his final two holes in the second round. Also of note, he made the cut at the very beginning of this month at the Wells Fargo Championship finishing T42, so he is two shots off of 4/4 cuts made in the month of May. He clearly likes this course and while I’ll save posting the statistical analysis, because it does not stack up well for Streb, I’ll mark this as my ultra risky gut-feel flyer of the week that should garner very low ownership to the tune of about 2-4%

Others to Consider

All the top golfers in the field like Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler have a place in lineups as they are all clearly talented enough to win this event. So it really just depends on personal stances on what kind of exposure you will have towards the top end guys when building your player pool. Five more golfers I like for this week, in no particular order:

1. Marc Leishman ($9,000 DK, $11,400 FD)

2. Tony Finau ($8,100 DK, $10,600 FD)

3. Chesson Hadley ($7,900 DK, $9,700 FD)

4. Tiger Woods ($9,400 DK, $11,300 FD)

5. Kyle Stanley ($7,600 DK, $8,600 FD) +Major pricing value on FanDuel

Top Golfer to Avoid

Here I’ll give one guy who I won’t be looking to take in any of my lineups. Oosthuizen made me look bad in this segment last week with a backdoor T5 shooting a 64 (6 under par) on Saturday, but let’s see if I can pick a dud for this week.

Phil Mickelson ($8,300 DK, $11,100 FD)

Ready to catch some heat from this, but I just don’t see major upside from Phil this week. He ticks off a lot of the statistical categories I’d be looking for at Muirfield but I’m predicting he finds himself in some bad positions off the tee and winds up playing catch up on a lot of holes. He is great at scrambling (21st in the field) and Sand Save % (3rd in field) but his 107th ranking in driving accuracy has me worried as the rough here is very punishing. Plus, at his last event at the Players, he missed the cut badly. So the current form isn’t where you’d like it to be. Moreover, this is just a gut feeling, from a personal perspective, that he performs below expectations.

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Good luck this week, guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer, approaching this week’s tournament, or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's takes.

Thanks for reading!

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