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A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier 2018 Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! We are coming off a week where TPC Potomac played much easier than basically everyone, including myself, predicted as Francesco Molinari absolutely demolished the course, winning by an eight stroke margin at 21 under par. Tiger Woods also made a very respectable run as he notched his third top 10 finish of his resurgence season, finishing in a tie for 4th place at 11 under.

This week, the PGA Tour travels over to White Sulfur Springs, West Virginia where The Old White TPC will host the newly dubbed “A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier” tournament. Like last week, we have another weak field event with just 10 of the World’s top 60 golfers (none in the top 10) in attendance, but unlike last week, the field will consist of a full 156 players, so seeing 6/6 lineups make the cut could be considerably lower. The Old White TPC will continue the stretch of Par 70 courses played and this one comes in just under 7,300 yards -- though, with it’s elevation sitting around 1,800 feet, it should play closer to 7,000 yards. The toughest test here will be the thick and penalizing rough, but it also has some of the most generous and easiest to hit fairways on Tour, as the field average should hover around 68% if we’re looking at last year’s results to correlate.

For the most part though, practically any style of golfer -- bombers, grinders, course managers alike, can have success here. That said, I believe I will definitely give bombers who traditionally lose some strokes on the fairways, a slight advantage. This course should set up nicely for a ton of birdies and the final score should hover around -15 to -20. Many golf pundits consider this event to play out more like a Web.com Tour “birdiefest” and we could very well see a young guy get his first career win here.

Note: I am going to change up the newsletter format slightly this week and, instead, give some of my favorite plays at each price range and give a cash rating vs. a GPP rating for each player. All that being said, let’s get into the weather outlook, important stats to key in on, and my picks for the week!

Weather 🌦️

As of writing this on Tuesday afternoon, the forecast appears to set up pretty nicely for every day except Friday. Winds should not really play much of a factor throughout the week as they should rarely exceed single digits. Temperatures are not concerning either, as most of the golf will be played in the 70's and low to mid 80's. However, rains & thunderstorms are fully expected to come into play on Friday around noon ET. If the rains remain manageable enough for golfers to play through it, then the Friday PM wave could see some slower greens to stick their approach shots onto. Hopefully lightning doesn’t come into play causing weather delays though. Of course, check the forecast for White Sulfur Springs, West Virginia closer to Thursday morning before making any drastic weather-related decisions.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

2. Par 4 Average

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%)

4. Greens in Regulation (GIR)

5. Driving Distance

High Priced Targets

Tony Finau ($11,500 DK | $12,000 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I don’t think it’s necessary to pay up for Finau in cash games this week. Much like Fowler last week, you are practically banking on him winning at his price point, but him being the top priced option on DraftKings (2nd on FanDuel) is hard to argue when you break down the numbers. Tony is 6th versus the field in SG: App, 4th in BoB%, 25th in Par 4 Avg., 13th in GIR and 2nd in Driving Distance. As usual, he should take advantage of the Par 5's as well, as he averages 4.50 strokes per Par 5 -- 1st in the field. In his two appearances on this course, he’s had a 13th place finish in 2015 and a 7th place finish last year. On most sites, Finau is ranked as the odds on favorite to win at 12:1 and very clearly makes a premier GPP play. He comes in as the first ranked player in my personal model.

Russell Henley ($10,400 DK | $10,500 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I fully expect Henley to be one of the chalkiest options on the week, which is why he could be worth lowering exposure on in GPPs, but I see no reason to fade in cash games. Russell is 3 for 3 cuts made on this course, including back to back 5th place finishes in 2015 and 2017. One thing to note: this course wasn’t played in 2016 due to extreme flooding, which is why you’ll notice no references to golfers playing there that year. Looking at Henley's stats, he comes in ranked 9th in both SG: App and GIR, 14th in BoB% and 40th in Par 4 Avg. He comes in solid form after finishing T6 in his last event at The Travelers, which was his 4th consecutive cut made. He holds 22:1 odds. Also worth noting that in PGA DFS, any time you notice a player’s FanDuel price is similar or lower than their DraftKings price, they’re very likely a better FD value in general.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,700 DK | $10,400 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Niemann is setting up to be one of my favorite plays this week. The 19-year-old is only 4 of 8 cuts made on the year, but he’s finished top 20 in three of his last four events and holds three top 10's on the season. He also played here last year and finished with a very respectable T29 as an 18 year old. From what I have picked up the past few days, a lot of sharp money being placed on his 28:1 odds this week. This just seems like the kind of course, in a weaker field, for a kid like Niemann to find his first PGA win.

Mid-Range Targets

Ryan Moore ($8,900 DK | $9,700 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Moore blew up a lot of people’s lines the last time out with a surprising missed cut, but this is still the sort of course his game really fits and should make him a nice tournament play. He’s 8th in SG: App, 20th in GIR, and 3rd in Par 4 Avg. No course history here but he’s getting as high as 33:1 Vegas odds to win this week. On DraftKings, he is priced just below J.B. Holmes, Walker, CHIII and Harman, who are all worth considering in their own right, but should further suppress Moore’s ownership. I think he makes a solid pivot off of those guys in GPPs but probably wouldn’t look to consider him in a cash game build.

Aaron Wise ($7,900 DK | $8,600 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

You’re not going to want to consider a guy coming in on three consecutive missed cuts in cash games, but Wise is only one more event removed from winning the AT&T Byron Nelson, shooting -23 under par. That’s the type of scoring ability that should come in handy during a week that should see a ton of birdies drop in. Despite his rough patch, Wise is still 2nd in the field in BoB% and ranks 22nd or better in SG: T2G, Driving Distance, Par 4 and Par 5 Avg. And he is 26th in GIR. Excellent GPP play that I don’t expect a ton of people to be rostering.

Low Priced Targets

Brandon Harkins ($7,100 DK | $8,200 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I have a feeling that Harkins will be one of the more popular “bottom of the barrel” options on both sites, as he is roughly the 50th most expensive golfer, but is known to show up in events like this where birdies are abundant. He’s 3rd in the field in BoB%, is one of the longer guys off the tee with a 302.5 yard average driving distance (16th in field) and has a decent approach game (38th SG: App). He’s 18/23 cuts made on the season and has three straight top 40 finishes. Nothing to drool over, but at this range, just him making the cut would result in great value.

Ted Potter Jr. ($7,600 DK | $8,100 FD) 

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you’re looking for a cheap course history target, Mr. Potter may be your guy. He won here back in 2012, finished 6th the following year in 2013, 26th in 2014 and 37th place finish last year. He’s one of those guys I suggest that isn't worth getting into the stats on because many of the key stats I’m looking at are average at best. But he did card a top 25 finish last week and, obviously, has had success on this course. So he’s definitely worth a look in GPPs.

Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week, but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me this week in no particular order:

- Bubba Watson ($11,000 DK | $11,800 FD) | GPP | Not going to omit him from my player pool again. 3rd overall in my player model. Decent success on this track.

- J.J. Spaun ($7,400 DK | $8,100 FD) | GPP | A “feast or famine” tournament value play that surprisingly shows up 1st in my stat rankings.

- Ryan Armour ($7,700 DK | $8,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | In great form and might hit 85+% of fairways this week.

- Webb Simpson ($10,700 DK | $11,500 FD) | GPP | Top GPP option. Three top 10's here with a 14th place finish last year.

- Charles Howell III ($9,300 DK | $11,600 FD) | Cash | Better DK value. Not the highest of upside but low chance he’ll completely burn you.

- Ryan Blaum ($7,900 DK | $8,500 FD) | GPP | Popular Vegas pick this week. Three straight top 25's and a 7th place finish here last year.

- Keith Mitchell ($7,500 DK | $8,900 FD) | GPP | Bomber who is 6th in BoB%. Could get hot quickly.

- Kevin Na ($8,700 DK | $9,500 FD) | GPP | His stats are too good on courses like this to not include him in at least one lineup each week.

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Good luck this week, guys! I hope y'all have a great holiday 💥🎆💥 Feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament, or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's hot takes!

Thanks for reading!