Top PGA Plays - The Northern Trust ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Congratulations to last week's freeroll winners!

  • 1st: troylammers - 580.5 points

  • 2nd: VaViking - 575.5 points

  • 3rd: jrellis - 572.5 points

We'll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings so remember to join!

  • 1st place: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place prizes will only be awarded 1 time per person.

The 2018 Northern Trust Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! The PGA Tour regular season wrapped up last week at the Wyndham Championship as we saw Brandt Snedeker lead the way wire-to-wire while joining an elite club, shooting a 59 in his opening round. With the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup rankings solidified, we head into the four week span of playoffs to find out who will ultimately claim the FedEx Cup Trophy and a nice little chunk of change in the way of $10,000,000.

The Northern Trust rotates course locations each year and this year it will be held at the Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, NJ, where it last hosted this event in the 2014, 2010 and 2008 seasons. Ridgewood CC is a Par 71 track that extends just under 7,400 yards -- rather long by Tour standards. However, its length is a bit deceptive considering the three Par 5's are 626 yards, 594 yards and 588 yards, so a “less than driver” approach is viable on a lot of holes. Ridgewood CC should test every bit of a player’s game as this course defends itself well from tee to green. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined with penalizing rough that will cause headaches for golfers not finding the short stuff. The bentgrass greens are smaller than average and are protected by a lot of bunkers. Golfers who miss these greens will need to have their scrambling game on point to save some pars. One thing to also note: five players eligible for this event have chosen not to play for various reasons -- Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, Patrick Rodgers and Bud Cauley. So with a field of 120 players this week, the top 70 plus ties will make the 36-hole cut and play the weekend. With a higher percentage of players making the cut than usual, I’d consider a more GPP heavy approach on the week, but nothing wrong with still rolling with some cash games.

Overlooking Ridgewood Country Club

This should be a fun one, and despite the fact that this course will be a difficult challenge, I’d expect the winner to finish somewhere in the 12-under to 15-under range if history is any indication. With all that said, let’s get into the weather for this week, the key stats I’m honing in on for Ridgewood CC and my favorite picks for The Northern Trust!

Also, one quick thing for anyone unfamiliar with how the FedEx Cup Playoffs work, it's explained pretty quickly and simply here:

Weather ⛅️

For PGA weather, we’re always looking primarily at Thursday and Friday to see if there’s an advantage for the golfers teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Tuesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

Thursday: Sustained winds look to hang around 10 mph throughout the day. Gusts should hit about 15-20 mph. Sunny throughout the day with fairly cool temperatures.

Friday: Fairly light winds hanging in the single digits all day. Sunny with temps staying in the 70's and 80's most of the day.

Overall: No significant advantage appearing right now for either wave as both AM/PM and PM/AM will deal with fairly steady conditions each of the first two rounds. Winds could present an issue on Thursday, but for the most part, it seems everyone will deal with it pretty evenly with the current forecast. As always, be sure to check the weather as we get closer to players teeing off!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (SG: ATG) | 15%

4. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 15%

5. Driving Accuracy | 10%

6. Scrambling | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentage I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Justin Rose ($9,900 DK | $12,000 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I'm going to lead things off with perhaps the most rock solid guy in this field in Justin Rose. Rose is likely the first guy you want to insert into your DraftKings lineup if you’re playing cash games this week. He doesn’t have as much potential value on FanDuel, but nothing wrong with taking him there either. Rose has yet to miss a cut this season and enters this week on a streak of eight consecutive top 25 finishes, half of which were top 10's with a win (Fort Worth Invitational). Stat wise, he has every tool in the box you’re looking for. He’s 2nd in the field in Par 4 Average, 4th in BoB%, 10th in Scrambling, 11th in SG: ATG, and 34th in both SG: App and Driving Accuracy. He’s as steady as they come and pops up 6th in my player model (2nd in key stat rankings) and is a 20:1 favorite to win this week (though I’ve seen his odds rising in some books to 16:1).

Tiger Woods ($10,100 DK | $11,900 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Hopefully some people will look at the length of this course and assume Woods may struggle due to the course’s length and his very lackluster driver (106th in field in Driving Accuracy). But as I mentioned in the course preview, Ridgewood CC’s length is inflated by the very long Par 5's. So with that said, the thinking here is that Tiger will opt to go with the “less than driver” approach to hit some more fairways. If he can do that, he’s poised for a serious run at The Northern Trust, as his irons and wedges have been phenomenal this season. He ranks 3rd in the field in SG: App, 6th in SG: ATG, 12th in Par 4 Average, 15th in BoB% and 20th in Scrambling. I’ll admit that I usually don’t like playing a ton of Tiger when it comes to DFS, since his Vegas odds are always inflated a bit (thus DK and FD tend to price him accordingly) but I’ve become more and more of a believer with his recent play. He’ll be popular no matter what but I love him for tournaments this week.

Jason Day ($10,700 DK | $11,900 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Considering The Northern Trust rotates courses, I’m not putting a ton of emphasis on course history. But it’s hard to ignore Day’s last two starts at Ridgewood CC, which ended with a 2nd place finish in 2014 and a 5th place finish in 2010. It also helps that he has reeled in four consecutive top 20 finishes entering this week. His weakness for much of the season has been his iron play (88th in field in SG: App) but in recent events, he’s been improving with those clubs a bit. But on a course where elite scrambling and a solid short game is at a premium, you have to love Day -- he ranks 1st in SG: ATG, 4th in Scrambling, and of course, he has the most reliable putter around, ranking 1st in SG: Putting. Elsewhere he comes in 7th in Par 4 Average and 8th in BoB%. The books give him a 12:1 shot to win and he profiles as another elite GPP target.

Mid-Range Targets

Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,900 DK | $10,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

RCB lead the way in my write-up for last week's Wyndham Championship as one of my favorite high priced targets. He had me sweating through the first two rounds as he barely made the cut but followed that up by shooting 11-under on the weekend and shot up to a tie at 11th place. Rafa is a guy I really like to target when things seem to be clicking for him. He enters this week on a streak of three finishes of 17th or better. Given the strength of this field, he may not look like an elite option but a lot of his stats rank very solid given his price point. He’s 14th in SG: App, 19th in Driving Accuracy, 39th in SG: ATG, 40th in Par 4 Average and 47th in BoB%. He’s a 66:1 favorite (which I think he should be more of a 45:1 favorite, some sites have him 80:1 which is a little crazy) and ranks 18th in my player model. I personally don’t think a lot of people will be on him this week, so he could end up in a lot of my lines.

RCB trending up nicely

Zach Johnson ($8,700 DK | $9,900 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

ZJ seems like the mid-range Justin Rose to me in events like this. He has just one missed cut in 20 events this season and is riding a streak of six consecutive top 20 finishes. His consistency makes him a very trustworthy target for cash games. His stats reflect that as he comes in 26th in SG: App, 8th in SG: ATG, 15th in Par 4 Average, 30th in BoB%, 22nd in Scrambling, and 47th in Driving Accuracy. His upside is somewhat limited with just one top 10 finish this calendar year (5th place at Valero Texas Open in April) so he may not make for the best GPP play, but you just feel like you know what you’re going to get with him. He ranks 2nd in my overall player model (7th in key stat rankings) and carries 66:1 odds.

Kevin Na ($7,600 DK | $8,800 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Here’s possibly my favorite mid-range tournament wildcard for The Northern Trust. With just one missed cut in his past nine events, including a T19 at the PGA Championship, Na enters this week in sneaky good form. I really love how his game sets up for this course, and his last start here in 2014 where he carded a 9th place finish kind of reaffirms my belief in that. Na ranks 22nd in SG: App, 5th in SG: ATG, 27th in Par 4 Average, 37th in BoB% and 6th in Scrambling. He also has a reliable putter (24th SG: Putting). Na is a 66:1 favorite and I believe he has the game to be a strong candidate for a sneaky top 10 finish. He ranks 8th in my overall player model.

Low Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen ($6,800 DK | $7,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

At this price range, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a stronger projected value on the board. Dahmen has made six consecutive cuts that feature three top 10 results. He’ll be up against a much stronger field than he’s used to facing, but the form that his game is in might be too strong to pass up. He’s 28th in SG: App, 22nd in Driving Accuracy, 9th in Par 4 Average, 35th in BoB% and 14th in Scrambling. He’s mixed in with some elite names in my player model, coming in 5th overall and 11th in the key stats model. I expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the board, so it’s understandable if you’d want to limit tournament exposure, but he has to be considered one of the strongest value plays in cash formats.

Dahmen-ating performances lately (sorry for that pun)

Chris Kirk ($6,800 DK | $8,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Here is your second chalky value play for this week. Kirk and Dahmen will probably be the most common players who show up together in “stars and scrubs” lineups, but of course there’s plenty of reasons for that. I wrote Kirk up last week when he was criminally under-priced (mainly on DK) and was bound to be 60-70% owned in cash (he was) but he showed why with a T11 finish at the Wyndham Championship, marking his 11th made cut in a row. He looks good on paper as well, ranking 16th in SG: App, 41st SG: ATG, 32nd in Driving Accuracy, 16th in Par 4 Average, 42nd in BoB% and 13th in Scrambling. All of that results in him popping up as major value, coming in 9th in both my stat rankings and overall player model. Similarly to Dahmen, Kirk makes a great cash play but he could be worth lowering exposure to in GPPs.

Anirban Lahiri ($6,500 DK | $7,600 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I wanted to find a diamond in the rough for my last value guy to write up and I landed on Anirban. He’s by no means a safe cash play but is someone who could find himself inside the top 15 on Sunday and only have about 2-4% ownership in GPPs. In his last six starts, he has two missed cuts (PGA Championship and The Open Championship) but also has finishes of T6, T9 and T13. In this strong of a field, his stats are hardly worth mentioning, but in the past I’ve noted that I’ll look to Lahiri in GPPs on courses where “less than driver” is viable and I believe Lahiri takes that approach this week. One of the courses I’ve seen that draws a good comparison to Ridgewood CC is TPC River Highlands where The Travelers Championship is held. Lahiri carded a T9 finish on that course this year, so I’m a believer that he can show up this week and shoot really well. I just wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Dustin Johnson ($11,500 DK | $12,400 FD) | Cash & GPP | Obviously a top play and has insane tournament history: 1st in 2017, 4th in 2016, 2nd in 2015, 2nd in 2014, and 4th in 2012. Fade at your own risk!

- Brooks Koepka ($10,500 DK | $12,300 FD) | Cash & GPP | Shows up big time in strong fields.

- Jordan Spieth ($9,600 DK | $11,700 FD) | GPP Only | Showing a bit of form lately and has all the tools to get a win here. Was 2nd in the field in SG: Putting at the PGA Championship, so if he has the flat stick back, look out!

- Francesco Molinari ($9,500 DK | $11,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | Still far and away the best average DK scorer in the last five events.

Mid Priced

- Patrick Cantlay ($8,600 DK | $9,800 FD) | Cash & GPP | Really solid cash play with just one MC in last nine events including five top 15 finishes. Nice course fit.

- Tony Finau ($8,500 DK | $10,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | Still one of the more reliable DFS plays despite tilting nearly the entire DFS industry at the PGA Championship.

- Patrick Reed ($8,400 DK | $11,000 FD) | GPP Only | He’s struggled as of late but this is the kind of course he succeeds at. Better putter on bentgrass greens. 7th in SG: ATG and 11th in Scrambling. Had a 9th place finish here in 2014.

- Gary Woodland ($7,700 DK | $9,400 FD) | GPP Only | Elite ball striker who is rounding into form at the right time. Last three starts: T6, T17, T22. Upside GPP target.

- Ian Poulter ($7,600 DK | $9,200 FD) | Cash & GPP | Still think he’s a bit under-priced again. Just one MC in last 12 events including eight top 25 finishes.

Low Priced

- C.T. Pan ($7,000 DK | $8,100 FD) | Cash & GPP | Had his chance to win last week but nothing wrong with riding the nice form and affordable price tag into this week.

- Kyle Stanley ($7,300 DK | $8,400 FD) | GPP Only | Only three weeks removed from his 2nd place finish at the WGC Bridgestone and this is the kind of course that he can excel at.

- Andrew Putnam ($6,600 DK | $7,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | Dirt cheap “stars and scrubs” piece. Just one MC (but two MDFs) in last 14 starts. 19th in Par 4 Average.

- Nick Taylor ($6,400 DK | $7,300 FD) | GPP Only | Willed himself into playoff position last week with a final round 63 and a T8 finish. Sitting at 119th in the FEC rankings, he’s a man with nothing to lose. Six straight made cuts as well.

- Charley Hoffman ($6,800 DK | $9,000 FD) | GPP Only | Was on a pretty nice run prior to Bellerive. Worth a shot in GPPs as he is priced way down particularly on DK. A lot of experience on this course compared to the field with finishes of 30th, 27th and 38th in last three appearances.

__________________________________________________________________

Good luck this week, guys!

And once again, feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS 

Thanks for reading!