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Get down to the LineStar PGA Chat for the lowdown from experts.

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The 2018 Open Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! Golf’s third Major of the season is upon us as the planet’s best golfers travel out to Angus, Scotland to Carnoustie Golf Links. This will be the eighth time Carnoustie has hosted the Open Championship -- the last time hosting being in 2007. This course will test every facet of a player’s game and has earned the nickname of “Car-nasty” from those who have competed here. It won’t be easy, to say the least.

The course is a Par 71 stretching 7,402 yards. The field consists of 156 players where top-70 plus ties will make the 36 hole cut. Through some practice rounds, many golfers have been pretty shocked at how fast and “baked out” the fairways are. Dustin Johnson hit a 473 yard drive on the 513 yard Par 5 14th hole and he’s far from the only one who has hit some drives with some ridiculous range over the past few days. The fairway conditions should bring a lot of shorter hitters squarely into play to complete, so driving accuracy and a great iron and wedge game on approach shots will help people survive Carnoustie. And that will be the end goal: survival. This will not be a birdie-fest by any means. Like most Major tracks tend to set up, even par through four rounds should be a good score and potentially the winning, score depending on how the weather plays out.

Overall though, whether they’re a bomber, course manager, grinder, or short & accurate, any type of player can take this Championship down. It’s more about capitalizing on birdie chances, especially when the wind will allow for more predictable shots, and then simply toughing out pars on the less forgiving holes, especially when the wind is kicking up.

** One thing to remember, contests for this week will lock at 1:35 am ET on Thursday morning (10:35 pm PT Wednesday night) so plan your contest entries accordingly.

With all that being said, let’s get into the weather, key stats and my picks for this week!

Weather 🌦️

Keeping an eye on the weather for this week is extremely important. On a course where birdies will be hard to come by, you have to look for every edge you can get. Carnoustie is very close to the North Sea, and with the course having virtually zero tree coverage, coastal gusts are going to be unavoidable. But if there are times where it will not be too much of a factor, we should take advantage of that. This is UK weather we’re dealing with that can change quickly, so try to double check as close to lineup lock as you can for the latest forecast. For those new to DFS Golf, your main focus for the weather should be for Thursday and Friday as the players who tee off Thursday morning in the AM wave will be in the PM wave on Friday and vice versa. Once we hit Saturday and Sunday for the final two rounds, there’s really no point in worrying about what the weather will do (unless you’re playing the single round slates).

Thursday AM: Winds start off very manageable around 5-10 mph sustained and gusts should not go far into the double digits. Sunny with temperatures in mid to high 50's.

Thursday PM: Winds pick up to 10-15 mph sustained. Some cloud coverage with low 60's temperatures.

Friday AM: Rain comes in early in the morning and continues into the early tee-times but should just be “off and on” showers that shouldn’t suspend play. The rain is predicted to bring in stronger winds, however, nearing 15 mph sustained with stronger gusts.

Friday PM: Winds still should be round 10-15 mph sustained but gusts shouldn’t be as harsh. Greens could still be softer from the morning rains.

Weather Summary: As it stands now, the Thursday AM/Friday PM golfers have a decent advantage over the PM/AM wave. Particularly on Thursday with the lightest winds. They should also avoid the strongest gusts on Friday as well.

Overall, I’d say if you want to make some tournament lines with only the AM/PM golfers, that could be a viable strategy. I would not outright avoid the PM/AM golfers unless they’re prone to being inaccurate off the tee. But if you’re on the fence between two guys and one plays Thursday morning while the other plays Thursday afternoon, I’d side the the morning player.

Once again, check the forecast as close to lock as possible to make a final decision.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) + Driving Accuracy

2. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) + Proximity

3. Par 4 Average

4. Bogey Avoidance

5. Scrambling

High Priced Targets

One note before I get into the picks: DraftKings has much softer pricing overall (as is usual for Majors) than FanDuel. So some guys, especially at the top and mid range, may be more viable on DK than FD.

Dustin Johnson ($11,300 DK | $12,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Well, not exactly taking a big risk here with my first pick, am I? The number one player in the world enters the week with three top 10's in his last three events including his 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open and a win at the St. Jude Classic. He’s finished inside the top 20 in every event he has played this calendar year and he hasn’t missed a cut at The Open in seven years. DJ is 1st in SG: OTT, 19th in SG: App, 13th in Proximity, 1st in Par 4 Avg., 7th in Scrambling, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. The only two negatives I can really think of for him are that since he is so long off the tee, he could miss some fairways more than you’d like to see but he’s traditionally a good wind player and should be able to keep it relatively straight. He’ll need to because my second negative is his PM/AM tee time designation, which as I noted above isn’t looking like the ideal wave drawing. But there’s too many positive indicators to not consider him as the top overall play for the week. DJ is easily #1 in my overall player model. He also leads the field with 12:1 odds to win.

Justin Rose ($10,200 DK | $12,200 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Rose likely has to be considered the safest option in the field this week. He is a perfect 17/17 cuts made on the season. He has about the best form you could hope for after consistently dominating his last four events with a T9 at the Scottish Open last week, a T10 at the U.S. Open, T6 at the Memorial and a win at the Fort Worth Invitational. He’s 2nd in the field in Par 4 Avg. just behind DJ, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Scrambling and is always solid off the tee, around the greens and with his putter. Great all around game and you certainly have to give some sort of edge to a bunch of the European players this week. He gets the (current) AM/PM advantage, comes in #2 in my player model, and holds the second best odds to win at 16:1.

Rickie Fowler ($9,700 DK | $11,400 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Fowler is still searching for his first Major win at the age of 29, so you know he will always be motivated for these events. He looked great last week in the Scottish Open as well, carding a T6 finish, making that his fifth straight finish inside the top 20. I have a feeling he may fly a bit under the radar among all these other top guys but he’s tied with Justin Rose with the second best odds to win at 16:1. He’s a player that can really grind out a course like this with the 9th best Par 4 average, 3rd ranked bogey avoidance, 6th in scrambling, and is pretty reliable with his irons & wedges as he ranks 18th in the field in Proximity. Fowler, like Rose, gets the AM/PM advantage. He loves links courses and the last two winners at Carnoustie were first time Major winners. Rickie could very well continue that trend.

Mid-Range Targets

Francesco Molinari ($8,600 DK | $10,400 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Moli is one of the more polarizing players for me this week. On one hand, he might be the hottest golfer in the world after either winning or finishing runner-up in four of his last five PGA & EURO Tour events with a T25 at the U.S. Open sandwiched in the middle. On the other hand, aside from the U.S. Open of course, he’s been taking advantage of some pretty weak fields, particularly in his last two PGA events. This just seems like the perfect spot for him to just bomb and screw over a lot of lineups. BUT, with that said, it’s hard to ignore the insanely strong form. I don’t think I’ll look to take him in cash games, but he’s an elite T2G player that will definitely be a top end tournament play for me. He has the 14th best odds in the field at 33:1.

Alex Noren ($8,300 DK | $9,800 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Noren looks like he’s rounding back into great form coming off a French Open victory on the EURO Tour a couple weeks back. Prior to that, he’s reeled in a T25 at the U.S. Open, T23 at the Italian Open, T3 at the BMW PGA Championship, and a T17 at the Players. He’s a guy who loves links courses and can handle windy conditions. Noren finished 6th at The Open last year, for his second career Top 10 finish in the event and just generally seems like he lives to play difficult events versus stout competition. Love the Swede in tournaments this week. Vegas likes him too at 30:1 odds. Great value on FanDuel.

Low Priced Targets

Tony Finau ($7,200 DK | $10,200 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Finau is criminally underpriced on DraftKings, which will result in him being one of the chalkiest options on the board, but you might have to take him in a lot of spots. He’s a bomber (316.8 yards/drive, 3rd in field) that should be able to counter any inaccuracy off the tee with more birdie looks. To be so long off the tee, he actually does a pretty solid job of avoiding bogeys, ranking 26th in that category. And he has a strong approach game, ranking 28th in SG: App. He is a solid wind player and does well on links courses. He also tees off with the AM/PM wave, so another slight advantage goes to him there. In his first two Open appearances in his career he carded solid finishes of T18 in 2016 and T27 last year. Solid pick in any format, in my opinion.

Andy Sullivan ($7,200 DK | $8,000 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Sullivan is a EURO Tour player that I’ve gotten to familiarize myself with though some research over the past couple of days. He missed the cut in last week’s Scottish Open, but prior to that, had made 14 cuts in a row with six top 10's in that span. Looking at his EURO Tour stats and how they translate into this field, he ranks 4th in SG: OTT, 17th in Par 4 Avg., and appears to be an excellent putter, ranking 7th in SG: Putting. His approach game doesn’t appear to be anything to write home about (92nd in SG: App) but he’s hitting 72% of greens in regulation (13th in field) so he’s making up a lot of ground there. I don’t think you need to take him for cash but he looks like an elite GPP sleeper.

Zach Johnson ($7,200 DK | $9,700 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Well, here we have another major misprice, more so on DK once again. You’re almost forced to play ZJ in cash on DraftKings and very likely on FanDuel. He’s coming into this week with three top 20 finishes in a row and only one missed cut in 17 events this season. His tournament history is elite as well finishing 14th or better in five of his last six Open appearances including taking home the Claret Jug as the 2015 champion. His best stats are 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Proximity, 23rd in Par 4 Avg., and 29th in Driving Accuracy. Just fire him up in cash games because, even if he misses the cut, he’ll probably be 50-60% owned and shouldn't hurt your lineup as much as if you were to fade him in cash and he finished Top 10. He could be worth fading in *some* tournament lines considering he’ll still be 30+% owned, if I had to guess. ZJ ranks 13th in my player model, so he’ll still be one of my highest owned players in all formats regardless.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me, sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Brooks Koepka ($9,200 DK | $12,100 FD) | Cash & GPP | Excels in Majors with 16 consecutive cuts made in them. Great links player and a top overall target.

- Jon Rahm ($9,800 DK | $11,300 FD) | GPP only | Back-to-back top 5 finishes recently. I expect he’s going to be one of the most aggressive players in the field with his driver. Could win him the week or miss the cut by 3+ strokes.

- Jason Day ($8,800 DK | $11,700 FD) | GPP only | Good course fit and no one is really talking about him. Probably has the best putter in the field.

- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,400 DK | $10,900 FD) | Cash & GPP | Gotta stick with my guy Tommy and his luscious mane again this week. Holds the course record at Carnoustie with a 63 he shot back in October.

Mid Priced

- Henrik Stenson ($8,200 DK | $11,600 FD) | GPP only | Would have been a top five overall play for me but his elbow injury makes him a very risky play now. Vegas odds have been dropping. Worth monitoring, but he's even said he doesn't feel 100%.

- Tiger Woods ($8,900 DK | $10,800 FD) | GPP only | The mania behind Tiger’s return is dying down, so he could go under the radar. Still has some of the best irons around and is elite around the greens.

- Branden Grace ($7,900 DK | $10,000 FD) | Cash & GPP | 19/19 cuts made. Steady wind and links course player. Seems like a safe option.

- Ian Poulter ($7,800 DK | $9,400 FD) | GPP only | Playing some inspired golf this year and comes in with very nice form.

- Patrick Reed ($8,400 DK | $11,400 FD) | GPP only | In the first two Majors this year, he has a win and a 4th place finish, so he has to be in consideration.

Low Priced

- Emiliano Grillo ($6,800 DK | $8,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | Will be a very popular punt play. Had a 12th place finish in his Open debut in 2016. Only MC this season was at the beast that was Shinnecock.

- Bronson Burgoon ($6,300 DK | $7,000 FD) | GPP Only | A total Hail Mary with 500:1 odds but he’s basically the dead minimum price and has a 2nd place and a 6th place finish in his last three events. 32nd in my player model.

- Stewart Cink ($6,600 DK | $8,000 FD) | Cash & GPP | Can’t argue with the form. Past Open champion and a T6 at Carnoustie the last time it was here. 16th in SG: App & 9th in Proximity

- Danny Willett ($7,200 DK | $7,100 FD) | GPP only | The former Major winner is rounding into form. T19 last week and T6 the week before on the EURO Tour. Sneaky dart throw.

- Ryan Moore ($6,700 DK | $8,600 FD) | GPP only | His stat rankings are actually incredible for this track but is known to putt himself out of tournaments. He’s an accurate driver ranking 3rd in accuracy and is 4th in Bogey Avoidance. Borderline cash play.

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Good luck this week, guys!

Don't forget to join in on this week's LineStar Freeroll here!

With MLB on the All-Star Break hiatus, I'm sure some folks who aren't super familiar with PGA DFS will look to try it out, so feel free to

if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on

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One last mention to be mindful of the earlier than usual start for the PGA contests this week and to check the weather as close to the start of the tournament as you can!

Thanks for reading!