Top PGA Plays - The PGA Championship ⛳️

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The 2018 PGA Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! This week we prepare for the fourth and final Major of the season as the PGA Tour travels out to St. Louis, Missouri to Bellerive Country Club for the 100th PGA Championship. Bellerive is a long Par 70 that extends a bit over 7,300 yards and will test every aspect of a player’s game. This course features 12 holes that are dogleg lefts, which will favor players with accurate draws for the righties, fades for lefties. The fairways themselves tend to narrow further down on each hole and accuracy will be key as the rough is menacing. The greens are heavily protected by bunkers and, while they are large, different level changes and slopes will make approach shots rather challenging. Weather conditions have caused some of the greens to become “burnt out,” so putting in some spots will require difficult and unique reads.

I do believe this will be quite a challenging set up even for this star-studded field and we should be in for an intriguing week of golf! So keeping the course preview short and sweet here, let’s get into the weather forecast, stats to key in on and my picks for this week!

Weather ⛅️

For PGA weather, we’re always looking primarily at Thursday and Friday to see if there’s an advantage for the golfers teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Tuesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

I can keep it simple here because this week it looks like weather shouldn’t play much of a factor when considering who to roster. Through the first two rounds, winds should barely surpass the 5 mph range and it’ll be hot and dry. Storms may roll through during the weekend rounds but that’s not anything we should be concerned about.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG:OTT) + Driving Accuracy

2. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) + Proximity

3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%)

4. Par 4 Average

5. Sand Save Percentage

High Priced Targets

Justin Thomas ($9,700 DK | $11,400 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Riding the hot hand with JT here, coming off of a crisp winning performance at the WGC Bridgestone last week. He’s also the reigning PGA Championship champ and checks off a lot of boxes you’d want to look at for this week. He ranks 4th in the field in SG: App, 3rd in both Par 4 Average and BoB% and 24th in SG: OTT. JT is a threat to get hot and rack up a ton of birdies even on difficult tracks. He only has one missed cut in 17 events, so he should be trusted as both a cash and GPP cornerstone. His Vegas odds also shot up to 14:1 after his win last week, trailing only DJ and Rory.

Rory McIlroy ($11,000 DK | $12,300 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Speaking of Rory, he’s going to be a top target of mine this week, particularly in tournaments. It’s hard to ignore his PGA Championship history as he has four top 5 finishes including two wins and just one missed cut in nine trips. He also comes in with great form after a T2 at The Open and a T6 last week at the WGC Bridgestone. He carries the most dominant driver on the PGA Tour, so the length of this course will not be a problem for him. He does struggle with his irons and wedges (47th in SG: App) which is why he is primarily a GPP only guy for me, but he carries a ton of winning upside with his 12:1 odds and has the ability to decimate this field.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300 DK | $11,400 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

As I’ve noted before with Tommy, if he could just string together 3 or 4 steady rounds, he’d be almost unstoppable. Last week he was 11-under through 36 holes and went on to shoot 5-over on the weekend. I still love him for this week, and in his last five PGA Tour events, his lowest finish was his T14 last week. He ranks 7th in SG: OTT and 7th in BoB%. One of my favorite things about his game for this course is he is fairly accurate (34th in Driving Accuracy) while maintaining great length (16th in Driving Distance). I’m expecting good things from Fleetwood this week and, with just one missed cut in 13 PGA Tour events this season, I think he makes a nice cash and GPP target.

Mid-Range Targets

Joaquin Niemann ($7,600 DK | $9,200 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Niemann’s price and odds (66:1) just seem way off to me considering how well he’s been playing. He has just one missed cut in his last seven events, including five top 25 and three top 10 finishes. This kid has been lights out since turning pro and should be considered heavily this week. He doesn’t have as many rounds to register stats off of, but the stats I do have on him are incredibly impressive. In this field, he ranks 6th in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: App, 21st in Driving Accuracy (15th in Driving Distance), 3rd in Proximity, and 5th in both Par 4 Average and BoB%. I guess the big question with the 19-year-old is “is this stage too big for him?” but my answer would be a definitive “no.” He comes in 4th in my overall player model and I think you can fire Joaquin up with confidence across the board.

Patrick Cantlay ($8,400 DK | $9,700 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Cantlay seems to be hitting on all cylinders lately with four top 15 finishes in his last five starts, including a T6 at Firestone CC last week. He excels off the tee, ranking 11th in SG: OTT, 30th in SG: App and 16th in BoB%. He’s one of a few guys who drives the ball 300+ yards and hits 60+% of fairways. I predict he will play well enough this week to be in the picture to win on Sunday. Cantlay is a better value on FanDuel as the 27th highest priced option (18th on DK) but I’m fine with firing him up in all formats and both sites.

Zach Johnson ($7,500 DK | $9,800 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Going back five events to the U.S. Open, ZJ has been one of the most consistent performers, collecting top 20 finishes in each start. He’s particularly sharp with his irons and wedges (6th in Proximity) and is reliable on Par 4's (12th in Par 4 Average). The 42-year-old is not a long hitter, only averaging 290.7 yards/drive but he finds a good amount of fairways (40th in Driving Accuracy). I don’t believe he carries a ton of win equity, and his 100:1 odds reflect that, but if you want a guy to roll out in cash games who is in solid form and should stand a really great chance at making the cut, ZJ is your man. Also, make sure your don’t pick Zach J. Johnson by mistake. I have no idea who that is.

Low Priced Targets

Kyle Stanley ($7,100 DK | $8,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I mentioned Stanley last week in the “Quick Hits” section as someone who could get a sneaky top 25 finish at the WGC Bridgestone. Well, he did much better than that, carding a 2nd place finish. Now that he seems to be back in good form, I really like his game for this course. He is 15th in SG: OTT, 28th in Proximity, 16th in Par 4 Average, and 37th in BoB%. Nothing really eye popping on paper but he’s the 51st and 59th highest priced player on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. What stands out about him though is his elite driving accuracy. He hits 70.8% of fairways, which ranks 5th in the field. That alone should give him a leg up on a lot of guys this week. He holds 80:1 odds and I’d say he is viable in cash and a nice value target in GPPs.

Stewart Cink ($6,700 DK | $8,300 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Never thought I’d write about Stewart Cink as much as I have, but lately he keeps making cuts and exceeding value. He’s made five consecutive cuts with two top 5 finishes mixed in. He is an excellent iron player, ranking 11th in SG: App and 13th in Proximity. His history at the PGA Championship isn’t ideal, only making 5 out of 10 cuts and obviously he isn’t someone you’re banking on to win (200:1 odds). But given his current form, I think he makes for a nice dirt cheap cash play and can be considered in some GPP builds. If he sniffs the top 25, that’s immense value.

Gary Woodland ($7,000 DK | $8,900 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Woodland enters this week with six consecutive made cuts and back-to-back top-25 finishes at the WGC Bridgestone and the Canadian Open. His odds, while not spectacular, have climbed up to 100:1 and I could definitely see him making some waves this week. He’s elite off the tee, ranking 5th in SG: OTT. For a guy who hits it 313.6 yards/drive (6th in field) his 62% of fairways hit (45th in field) is pretty impressive. He also has some of the best long irons around -- while he’s 35th in overall Proximity, he ranks 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards and 5th in Proximity 200+ yards. That will no doubt come in handy on some of these longer holes. On the season, he’s made 15/20 cuts and pops off as a great value target in tournaments.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me this week, sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Dustin Johnson ($11,400 DK | $12,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | I probably don’t need to recommend DJ as a play, but for posterity’s sake, I figured I’d include him in this section.

- Justin Rose ($9,400 DK | $11,900 FD) | GPP Only | His withdrawal last week with back spasms is the only reason I’m sticking to tournaments only with Rose, but if he’s 100%, he could easily win.

- Brooks Koepka ($9,600 DK | $11,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | When it comes to Majors, you simply have to count Koepka in. Of course he is the back to back U.S. Open champ and has finished top 15 at the PGA Championship four straight years.

- Jason Day ($9,000 DK | $11,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | Too cheap on DK. Last five finishes at the PGA Championship: 9th, 2nd, 1st, 15th, 8th.

- Francesco Molinari ($9,200 DK | $11,200 FD) | GPP Only | People will probably jump off the Molinari bandwagon after his middling T39 last week but you can’t discount how dominant he’s been in previous weeks.

Mid Priced

- Tony Finau ($8,100 DK | $10,600 FD) | Cash & GPP | Reliable big time birdie maker. Driving accuracy is a concern but I’m not too worried about this guy.

- Paul Casey ($8,000 DK | $10,900 FD) | Cash & GPP | Perennial cash play but I think he has a real shot and could go overlooked in tournaments.

- Louis Oosthuizen ($7,700 DK | $9,800 FD) | GPP Only| Five straight finishes of no worse than T28. 1st in Proximity and 2nd in Sand Save %.

- Henrik Stenson ($8,700 DK | $11,000 FD) | GPP Only | Still can’t tell if his elbow is giving him issues but he has five top 10 finishes in 11 PGA Championship starts.

Low Priced

- Ian Poulter ($7,100 DK | $9,400 FD) | Cash & GPP | His missed cut at The Open must be keeping his salary suppressed. That or people just aren’t rostering him. He’s way too cheap on both sites.

- Chris Kirk ($6,800 DK | $8,000 FD) | Cash & GPP | Nine straight made cuts and pops up 13th in my player model. A late addition to the field but worth a look.

- Keegan Bradley ($7,500 DK | $9,200 FD) | GPP Only | He’s 2nd in SG: App and hits on a lot of other key stats. If he has a good putting week, he could surprise some people ending up towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

- Thorbjørn Olesen ($6,700 DK | $8,600 FD) | GPP Only | One of my favorite GPP dart throws. Across his last seven worldwide starts, he has two missed cuts but a win at the Italian Open, a T2 at the BMW International Open, a T3 at the WGC Bridgestone last week, a T6 at the Irish Open and a T12 finish at The Open Championship. A little hit or miss, but when he’s in his groove, he has really been showing out.

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Good luck this week, guys!

Feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS .

Thanks for reading!