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The 2018 RBC Canadian Open Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! What a week we’re coming off of as a handful of players were within reach of the Claret Jug coming down the stretch of the final round at The Open, including Tiger holding onto a pretty late, yet brief, lead. In the end, Francesco Molinari continued his torrid stretch of world class golf going bogey free on his final 37 holes on his way to becoming the first Italian to win The Open Championship.

This week, we travel to Glen Abbey Golf Club located in Oakville, Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open where nearly a quarter of the world’s top 100 golfers will tee it off. Glen Abbey is a Jack Nicklaus designed Par 72 course that extends 7,253 yards -- relatively short by Tour standards. Despite the shorter length for a Par 72, golfers will face their fair share of tricky course elements. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined. There are 85 bunkers to navigate as well as water hazards coming into play on many of the holes.

With that said, there are still four easy Par 5's on this course that should result in about 40-45% of all DFS scoring and we should expect a fair amount of eagles to be knocked in this week. On the flip-side, the four Par 3's will be fairly tough and should play well over par for the week -- guys who can simply avoid bogeys on these holes can gain a nice edge on the field.

Now let’s get into the weather, stats to key in on, and my favorite plays for this week!

Weather 🌦️

For PGA weather, we’re always looking primarily at Thursday and Friday to see if there is an advantage for the golfers teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Tuesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

Thursday AM: Very little wind to speak of early in the morning with gusts becoming a factor later on.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds around 12-15 mph with stronger gusts reaching into the 20+ mph range. Could see a bit of rain as well.

Friday AM: Single digit sustained winds much of the morning. No significant gusts. Dry and sunny.

Friday PM: Sustained winds between 10 mph. Gusts only reaching about 12 mph. Mostly sunny throughout with slight chance of rain.

Consensus: Overall, if the current forecast holds true, the AM/PM wave could have an advantage here as they will avoid the strong 20+ mph gusts later in the day on Thursday. Friday seems like a draw with winds looking to be manageable all day. Currently, however, I wouldn’t go far out of my way to focus on “wave stacking” but it is definitely something to keep an eye on.

But, once again, check the forecast as close to lock as possible to make a final decision.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (Par 5 BoB%)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) + Good Drive Percentage*

3. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

4. Par 4 Average

5. Par 3 Average

High Priced Targets

Dustin Johnson ($11,700 DK | $12,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

To some extent, nearly everyone got burned by DJ’s missed cut last week at Carnoustie but that is just the nature of Majors sometimes. Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are two other top 5 ranked golfers in the world that joined DJ in missing the cut. I believe part of the blame can fall on all of them getting the bad side of the draw with the weather. The rest can fall on the variance that a course like Carnoustie can present. A positive for DJ here is that he likely has gotten some extra practice rounds at Glen Abbey or, at the very least, a couple extra days to rest and adjust to the long flight back. In his past three trips here, DJ has an 8th place finish from last year and two runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2013. He’s obviously still going to be at the top of some key stats to focus on as well, as he is 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 1st in Par 4 Average, 2nd in Par 3 Average, and 4th in SG: App. He once again has the best odds in the field at 6.5:1 and if you can fit him in cash games and feel comfortable with the rest of the guys you squeeze in, you could go with that approach, but I much prefer him as a primary GPP play.

Tony Finau ($9,800 DK | $12,100 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I feel like I write up Finau every single week but he’s such a consistent golfer and is a Par 5 scoring machine. He enters this week coming off his third top-10 Major finish this year and is a really nice course fit for this event. Tony is 12th in SG: OTT, 7th in SG: App, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, and 20th in Par 4 Average. He’s also 6th in overall BoB%. I worry a little about him on Par 3 scoring, where he is 51st in the field, but he’s averaging 3.06 strokes per hole, so it’s definitely not like he’s producing too many bogeys there (18th in Bogey Avoidance). Overall, on DraftKings I believe his price there is pretty manageable for cash games but he is another high end GPP target on both sites. Big time candidate for multiple eagles this week. He’s 2nd in my overall player model (behind DJ) and carries 16:1 odds.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500 DK | $12,000 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Fleetwood had a couple of disappointing rounds at The Open last week but still netted a solid T12 finish. Plain and simple, when Tommy is locked in, he puts up elite numbers as showcased by his 6-under round two last week and his incredible final round 63 in the U.S. Open. Sometime soon I just feel like he’s going to string together three or four rounds of similar golf and just scorch the field. I like his chances quite a bit this week as he comes in ranked 7th in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 5 BoB%, and 24th in Par 4 Average. He’s only missed two cuts in 23 events across the PGA and EURO Tours this year and has 16:1 odds to win this week. I’m not seeing a ton of love for him across the industry -- some of which may be due to him having never played here before and the long flight from the UK, plus shorter prep time that others may have leading in to this event. I think he makes a solid GPP play, but perhaps just slightly too risky for cash if he can't pull off a top end finish.

Mid-Range Targets

Chris Kirk ($7,600 DK | $10,100 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

I fully expect Kirk to be one of the chalkier options in cash games and he shows up 3rd in my player model, but it definitely makes a lot of sense. He’s coming off eight consecutive cuts made, is 3 for 3 cuts made on this course and hits on some key stats for this week. Kirk is 6th in the field in SG: App, 7th in Par 4 Average, 26th in Good Drive %, and 31st in Par 3 Average. He makes a birdie or better on 42.5% of Par 5's, which is only good for 57th in the field, so I’d like to see him hit above that mark this week. I don’t think he carries a ton of winning upside at 66:1 odds, but he should bring a good amount of cut equity into your lineups and a solid shot at a top 15 finish, which makes him a nice mid-range cash play.

Charlie Hoffman ($8,700 DK | $10,800 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

He’s on the higher end of this price range but if you’re looking for a “course horse” as well as a guy in great recent form, Hoffman should be one of the first guys you look at. In his four trips to Glen Abbey, Hoffman has not only made the cut, but has improved on his finish each year with a T28 in 2008, T16 in 2013, T7 in 2015 and finished 2nd after losing in a play-off to Jhonattan Vegas last year. He’s also reeled off three straight top 20 finishes (four if you include the T19 finish he had at the Scottish Open two weeks ago on the EURO Tour). Stat wise, he doesn’t jump off the page (39th in my key stats model) largely due to his struggles earlier in the season. But if you play him, you’re doing it for the recent form and course history, which is a completely fine approach. I think he’s a viable cash and GPP target and he’s tied for the 6th best odds to win at 25:1.

Byeong Hun-An ($7,800 DK | $10,600 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

It’s been a little while since An has had a great finish (a T2 at The Memorial in late May) and despite his lack of any course history here, I think An makes a great fit for this event. An is 9th in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: App, and 19th in Par 5 BoB%. He’s one of the longer guys off the tee with an average drive of 307 yards (13th in field). So if he can keep it in the fairways or at least the first cut of rough (which isn’t too penalizing) he’ll be set up nicely for some closer approach shots and birdie opportunities. He has the 13th best odds in the field at 40:1 and should be a nice target in all formats, but more so on DraftKings where he’s the 24th most expensive option as opposed to the 11th most expensive on FanDuel.

Low Priced Targets

Stewart Cink ($7,100 DK | $9,500 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Cink has been a steady source of value for the past month and a half because he’s been in great form with finishes of T24, T23, T2 and T4. He has a 5th place finish at Glen Abbey back in 2015 and hits on several key stats for this course as well. Cink is 3rd in SG: App, 27th in Good Drive %, and 11th in Par 4 Average. His Par 3 Average (74th in field) and Par 5 BoB% (53rd in field) aren’t ideal but I’m willing to overlook that considering the recent form. He’s another guy that is a better play on DraftKings as he is way under-priced there, especially compared to his 66:1 odds.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400 DK | $9,200 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

If you want a cheap bomber with considerable scoring upside, I’d give Mitchell a good look coming off a T7 finish at the John Deere Classic. On the season his average driving distance is 312.7 yards (4th in the field) which, in turn, helps in him being 4th in the field in SG: OTT and he's shooting birdie or better on 52% of Par 5's (ranks 3rd in the field). He’s also 5th in overall BoB%. I love him for tournaments but he makes for a risky yet pretty viable cash option. The risk with him being his lack of strokes gained on his approach shots (99th in field), he averages 3.10 strokes on Par 3's (98th in the field) and he’s not known as a great putter (117th in SG: Putting). For these reasons, and lack of course history, I’m personally just rolling him in GPPs and banking on the “bomber narrative” to pay off. His 66:1 odds to win in this price range can be considered a plus.

Harold Varner III ($7,100 DK | $9,000 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Similar in the vein of Mitchell, yet with a bit better form, is Harold Varner III. Coming off back to back finishes of 6th place at the John Deere Classic and a T5 finish at The Greenbrier, he’s another guy that fits the cheaply priced bomber type that excels on Par 5's. He averages just under 308 yards off the tee for the season (11th in field) and scores birdie or better on 46.9% of Par 5's (22nd in field). No other super enticing stats to point out for him, but he has a 23rd place finish at Glen Abbey last year, so he’s shown he can succeed here beyond this current price point. I think, considering his current form, you can look at him as a nice cash punt but he’s ideal for GPP builds.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets for me, sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Brooks Koepka ($10,800 DK | $12,300 FD) | Cash & GPP | Brooks is a threat to win any week. Always worth some exposure. 3rd in overall BoB%.

- Bubba Watson ($9,600 DK | $11,600 FD) | GPP Only | Second place finish here in 2015 and excels on Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. Still think he’s a bit of a headcase though and can blow up any week.

- Joaquin Niemann ($9,400 DK | $11,000 FD) | Cash & GPP | Has all the tools to win this week and is 2nd in DK points over the last five events.

Mid Priced

- Ian Poulter ($9,100 DK | $10,400 FD) | GPP Only | Bad missed cut at The Open last week but was playing very solid golf prior.

- Kevin Kisner ($9,000 DK | $9,700 FD) | GPP Only | Had a chance to win it all last week. Capable of having the hottest putter in this field. 13th in Par 5 BoB%.

- Jamie Lovemark ($7,800 DK | $9,300 FD) | Cash & GPP | Not a ton of upside but carries a lot of cut making equity.

Low Priced

- Joel Dahmen ($7,400 DK | $9,400 FD) | Cash & GPP | A top value option. Will likely be chalky but he is in great form.

- Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500 DK | $8,700 FD) | GPP Only | When a guy has won an event the past two years and isn’t overpriced you have to give him at least some tournament exposure.

- JJ Spaun ($7,200 DK | $8,200 FD) | GPP Only | Rounding into form. 5th in SG: App and 8th in overal BoB%

- Sam Ryder ($7,100 DK | $8,600 FD) | GPP Only | Great form with a T7 and a T2 in the past two weeks. Knocking in a ton of birdies. Borderline cash viable but great GPP punt.

- Chad Campbell ($6,700 DK | $8,000 FD) | GPP Only | 4/4 cuts made at Glen Abbey with an average finish of 21st. Had a T7 a couple weeks ago at the John Deere Classic

- Cameron Champ ($7,000 DK | $7,400 FD) | GPP Only | Very intriguing Web.com star with 50:1 odds this week. Six straight T11 or better finishes w/ a win two weeks ago. Extreme bomber hitting 342.7 (!!!) yds/drive & hits almost 70% of fairways. Also scores a ton of birdies, especially on Par 5's. His Par 5 BoB% on the Web.com Tour is 59.3%. Dustin Johnson is 2nd on the entire PGA Tour in Par 5 BoB% at 55.2% this season, for comparison. Web.com Tour courses are obviously easier but I felt it was worth noting.

- Adam Svensson ($6,300 DK | $7,100 FD) | GPP Only | Extreme Hail Mary here but the Canadian has won this year on the Web.com Tour and finished 34th in his last appearance at Glen Abbey. If he simply makes the cut, he pays off his salary and allows you to easily fit two or three top tier players in your GPP lines.

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Good luck this week, guys!

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Feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS .

Thanks for reading!