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Course Info

Welcome to the first of what I hope is many successful newsletters helping you break down the upcoming PGA event.

This is the Sony Open played at Waialae Country Club, and it is our first full field event with the top 70 and ties making the cut. Waialae is a tight course that can punish a player who is unable to keep the ball in the fairway, it only plays 7044 yards par 70 with the only two par 5’s coming on #9 and #18. According to the forecast there are no major weather concerns as Sunday is the only day where the wind is going to be in the double digits (10 mph out of NNE). Saturday is expected to be partly cloudy which means I am looking for some low scores all week as we don’t have a day in the forecast with > 20% chance of rain. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at a few golfers who should be on your radar this week.

Keys To The Course

This section will be limited to courses where we have course history. We look at players who finished in the top 5 over the past couple years at PGA events played at the current course and what all of those top 5 players did well.

Top 3 Stats For Waialae Country Club:

1. Putting Average

2. Driving Distance

3. Greens In Regulation

Top 10 Players Matching That Stat Combination:

Generally we'll be pulling top 10 players over the last month or two, but since so few players have played lately we'll be taking from all of the events played this season.

• Charles Howell III

• Tony Finau

• Ollie Schniederjans

• Russell Knox

• Chez Reavie

• Aaron Wise

• Andrew Landry

• Emiliano Grillo

• Zach Johnson

• Patrick Rodgers

Studs

1. Jordan Spieth (12.8k FD, 12k DK): Love Jordan this week and I am not alone. He is currently the Vegas favorite, and has shown up in a bunch of my research. In his last 2 events he has hit 81% GIR (greens in regulation) and I look for him to sort his putting out. He has placed in the top 5 here before and will need to improve on last week to hit value for us.

2. Brian Harman (11.3k FD, 10.6k DK): I can’t say enough good things about Harman as he has been playing at such a high level with 3 top 5’s in his last 4 events. He is 3rd in the field in driving accuracy which is so important for this course and his scrambling is best in the field during that time. I look for his success to continue and I will have plenty of exposure to him this week.

3. Zach Johnson (10.5k FD, 9.5k DK): He may not be priced as a stud on DK, but he checks all the boxes for me at this course. He has made the cut in his last 3 events and ranks near the top in GIR, putting, scrambling and driving accuracy. Give me a shorter hitter who stays in control of his game and is able to take advantage when the time comes.

Mid-Price Value Plays

1. Jimmy Walker (9.8k FD, 7.2k DK): Jimmy has had great success here with 2 of his 6 tour victories coming @ the Sony open (2014, 2015). If he can keep his driver in play and that is a BIG IF he will be in shape to make some noise come this weekend. He is putting the ball well but has put himself in trouble off the tee. All things considered I will have him in plenty of lineups and he is an absolute staple on DK this week.

2. Sean O’Hair (9.7k FD, 7.4k DK): He can keep it in the fairway, he scrambles well and can putt, all great things that I look for in a play. If he does those 3 well and improves ever so slightly on GIR % he will be a player come Sunday.

3. Charles Howell (10.1k FD, 8.8k DK): He has played in the Sony 13 times and hit the top 5 SIX TIMES. Overall he is just plain comfortable here, any golfer knows that playing comfort is a major key to playing well. I look for him to continue his success @ the Sony and be in contention come Sunday.

Bargain Barrel

This isn’t as important this week as there are enough middle-price players that I like and the top-price guys aren’t runaways IMO. I will give you one player who I am going to have plenty of and am excited to see how he does.

• Whee Kim (8.3k FD, 6.9k DK): With 2 top 5’s in his last 6 events I don’t mind putting him in a GPP lineup to get some more stud power. He hits enough greens and putts well enough to be on my radar. One thing that scares me is his inability to keep the ball in the fairway, this course will punish you if you don’t keep it in the short stuff.

Avoids

It would not be a complete article if I didn’t tell you who I am avoiding. I like to go through and take guys out of the pool that I really don’t like. Here are my 2 for this week.

• Justin Thomas: I know he dominated this event last year and set all kinds of course records. I know he is one of the most superior talents in play. I also know he is the reigning POY. I just feel at his price I like other talent. He came in as much as Spieth in the keys I look to, but the major thing that bumps him down is……………………... He is going with a new caddie this week. I may very well be dead wrong on that and I will own it if I am. Like I said he came in as many radar alerts as Spieth so he has all the tools and may be a great play, but it just won’t be in my lineups.

• Stewart Cink: Everywhere I research has him as a mispriced guy who will be in the perfect lineup. At 44 years old I can find other talent to fill out my lineups.

I hope you find some value in this article and as always, MAY YOUR LINEUPS BE LIVE AND SCREENS BE GREEN!

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