Top PGA Plays - The TOUR Championship ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2018 TOUR Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to my fellow golf enthusiasts! We have arrived at the final event of the season -- the TOUR Championship! This is the final play-off event and come Sunday evening we will know who will be crowned the FedEx Cup Champion and take home that sweet trophy and a cool 10 million dollars. As many of you may know, this field consists of the final 30 players at the top of the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no cut event. Any golfer inside the top five of the FEC standings (DeChambeau, Rose, Finau, D. Johnson, J. Thomas) who wins the TOUR Championship this week will automatically be crowned the 2018 FedEx Cup Champion. You can check out all other scenarios on how the rest of the field could win HERE. And from here on out, I’ll stop using the official capitalization of “TOUR” in “Tour Championship” because I feel like I’m yelling at you guys.

The Tour Championship will take us out to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia where it has hosted this tournament since 2004. Xander Schauffele fended off Justin Thomas to win here last year with a final score of 13-under. It’s a rather long Par 70 set-up that extends just over 7,300 yards. The Donald Ross designed course features narrow tree-lined fairways, thick but playable rough, and relatively fast Bermuda greens. A comparable course for East Lake GC is Sedgefield CC, another Donald Ross design that hosts the Wyndham Championship.

Ahh, the sun sets on the 2017-18 PGA Tour season as it does here at East Lake GC

Much like the newsletter for the BMW Championship, this will be on the shorter side considering the field is trimmed down to only 30 players. Also, I’ll skip the cash and GPP star ratings. Everyone in this field (except for Patton Kizzire, sorry pal) is the 'cream of the crop' on the PGA Tour and they are all capable of high scoring finishes. So from a strategy standpoint, particularly in GPPs, don’t be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table -- even up to around $1,500. Now, you don’t have to do that with every lineup but many people will wind up entering duplicated lineups into GPPs with so few options to choose from and risk splitting cash at the top. I recommend taking a stand on a set amount of golfers for your player pool and either go higher on your exposure relative to where you think the field will be or go lower. I’ll personally be looking to focus on 12 to 15 guys maximum to target.

Now, let’s get into the weather, key stats to focus on, and some golfers I’m liking for this week!

Weather ⛅️

With only 30 players in the field, tee times aren’t so spread out as they typically are, so there's not much of an advantage in looking to stack AM/PM or PM/AM waves. Teeing off in pairs this week, guys will begin at 11:40 am ET with the last pair teeing off at 2 pm ET.

Overall though, it’ll be sunny and hot through the first two days and winds look like they’ll stick in the single digits with gusts barely hitting 10 mph. No threat of rain in sight. Should be a good week for golf!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) + 5% Weight on Driving Accuracy | 30% total

2. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg) | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 15%

4. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 15%

5. Proximity 175+ Yards | 15%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k)

JT finished as the runner-up here at East Lake GC last year and that was enough for him to claim the 2017 FedEx Cup Trophy. I like him a ton this week and will look to have him in a good deal of lineups. He rates out 1st in my overall player model as he is 15th in the field in SG: OTT, 3rd in SG: App, 12th in Proximity: 175+ yards, 3rd in P4 Avg, and 2nd in BoB%. He’s fallen short of expectations in the past couple of tournaments (T12 at the BMW Champ. & T24 at the Dell Tech. Champ.) but he’s had two weeks to prepare for this one and, along with the runner-up finish here last year, he had a T6 at East Lake GC in 2016. His driving accuracy is the only aspect of his game that has me a bit hesitant as he’s 23rd in the field hitting an average of 57.8% of fairways but I’d still look for him to be “all systems go” and aim to be the back-to-back FEC Champion with a win this week. His 11:1 odds to win check in as the fourth best.

Note: Justin Thomas is apparently dealing with a wrist injury and has it taped up this week. When asked about it he said “It’s not as bad as it looks... It’s just for precautionary measures.” But something to keep in mind and pay attention for any news or possible movement in his odds to win.

Rory McIlroy (DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.9k)

Rory is piecing together his game at the right time, coming off a solo 5th place finish at the BMW Championship two weeks ago after shooting an opening round eight-under of 62 (that could have easily been a 59). It’s well known that he will likely out-drive everyone in this field with an average distance of 319.9 yards/drive. He ranks 7th in SG: OTT, 12th in P4 Avg, and 14th in BoB%. His strokes gained on approach only ranks 21st in the field on the season but he has been improving on his irons and wedges in recent weeks. And when it comes to the long irons, he’s elite, ranking 4th in proximity 175+ yards. He’ll be a key component in aggressive lineup builds and we’ll see if the 2016 Tour Championship winner here at East Lake and 2014 runner-up can have similar success this go around. The Irishman ranks 5th in my player model and is tied with Rose and DJ having the best odds in the field to win at 9:1.

Mid-Range Targets

Tony Finau (DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k)

Finau came away with a 7th place finish in his Tour Championship debut at East Lake last year, and though it seems a possible win is only an illusion for him, you have to feel like a top 10 finish is nearly a lock for him at this point. Going back through his past nine starts dating back to the U.S. Open, he has six top 10’s including three straight in each of the playoff events so far. He will no doubt be a popular play but it’s completely justified. He’s 11th in SG: OTT, 13th in SG: App, 15th in Proximity 175+ yards, 11th in P4 Avg, and 9th in BoB%. I’m sure he’s riding the high of making the American Ryder Cup Team and will look to keep his incredible form rolling through the Tour Championship. He tops out at 4th in my player model and holds 18:1 odds to win. I’ll certainly be rooting for the guy, as he's quickly become one of my favorite golfers to watch.

Francesco Molinari (DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.3k)

Moli comes into East Lake for his career debut while ripping off seven top 10’s in his past ten worldwide starts! After missing the cut at The Northern Trust and taking a week off, he returned to play in the BMW Championship where he had a strong showing, finishing T8 and going bogey free over his final 54 holes. This course sets up perfectly for Molinari’s game -- he’s a world class ball striker and hits it nice and straight off the tee. In this field, he’s 8th in SG: OTT, 5th in SG: App, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 13th in Proximity 175+ yards, and 23rd in P4 avg and BoB%. Those last two stats are not encouraging, but in his past 12 rounds he ranks 3rd in P4 avg and he’s certainly capable of consistently shooting low. It’s tough to really call anyone in this field a “dark horse” to win this week considering the immense talent across the board but if I had to pick one, he’d be it. He’ll carry 25:1 odds into this one.

Low Priced Targets

Billy Horschel (DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k)

Horschel is a guy you probably just want to throw season long stats and biases away, considering most of his success this year has come of late, with two T3 finishes in his three FedEx Cup playoff starts with a first round withdrawal due to illness at the Dell Technologies Championship sandwiched in between. The fact that his WD wasn’t injury related and he came back strong the following week definitely alleviates a lot of worry there. So you have to like his form coming in and his ability to drive the ball straight and hit a ton of fairways will translate well here at East Lake GC. This is very apparent since his last two starts here resulted in a victory in 2014 and a 7th place finish in 2013. At 28:1 odds for his price point, he holds some of the strongest “Vegas value” out of anyone. The fact that he is priced just four spots above Patton Kizzire on FanDuel is damn near criminal. While his form could derail at any moment, I’ll be locking him in to plenty of lineups this week.

Gary Woodland (DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.7k)

Woodland is setting up to be one of my preferred “punts” with some solid form and a nice amount of success at East Lake. He sports a pair of top 10’s here coming in 2016 and 2014. Statistically he’s rock solid ranking 4th in SG: OTT, 10th in SG: App, 11th in Driving Accuracy -- which is nice considering he’s the 11th longest driver with an average driving distance of 312.7 yards -- and he has elite long irons ranking 1st in Proximity 175+ yards. He falters when it comes to P4 Avg (27th) and BoB% (20th) but a lot of that can be attributed to lackluster putting (25th in SG: Putting). If he just stays close to even with the field in putting, every other club in his bag should help him to a nice finish. He comes in 12th in my player model and may only have 50:1 odds to win but he won’t need a win to pay off his salary -- he’s +275 to land a top 10 finish.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Brooks Koepka (DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k) | Big Stage? Check. Tough Field? Check. Eventual winner stands a lot to gain? Check. I’ll take some Brooks any time in spots like these. 6th place finish here last year.

- Tiger Woods (DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k) | I can't *not* take some Tiger in the last event of the (PGA) season. Best irons in the field and it’s always hard not to root for him by the transitive property of including him in DFS lineups!

Mid Priced

- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.7k) | Tommy is volatile, sure, but only Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson have more top 10 finishes than him this season. Looking forward to seeing how he does in his career debut here.

- Webb Simpson (DK: $7.5k, FD: $10.1k) | Using Sedgefield CC (The Wyndham Championship) as a Donald Ross comp course, he finished T2 there this year. Has the tools to succeed at East Lake evidenced by his two top 5's here in the past.

Low Priced

- Xander Schauffele (DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k) | Hard not to at least have a piece of the reigning champion who is coming off a T3 finish in his last event.

- Patrick Reed (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k) | I’m leaning towards fading the Casey chalk in this range and going with someone who is also struggling, like Reed, but has shown he is clearly capable of winning this season. Reed carries the same odds as Casey (40:1) but will have considerably less ownership. Ownership leverage is huge in GPPs every week, but even more so this week.

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Wellp, that’s a wrap for this season! Thanks for all those who have taken the time to read these newsletters and for LineStar for giving me an opportunity to write ‘em up -- I’ve enjoyed it! But we’ll be back not long from now for the PGA Tour’s “swing season” in just a few weeks. In the meantime, you can catch me in the NFL and CFB chats and dishing out the newsletters over there.

As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions! Good luck this week, guys!