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The 2018 Wyndham Championship Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! What an exciting show we had this past week for the final Major of the year. Tiger made some amazing shots on his way to a Sunday run up the leaderboard, but ultimately, it was Brooks Koepka who came away with the Wanamaker Trophy at the PGA Championship. As I noted in last week’s article, when it comes down to Major events over the past few years, Koepka has proven to be a dominant force time and time again.

Now we turn our sights to the final event before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin, the Wyndham Championship held in Greensboro, North Carolina at Sedgefield Country Club. Out of the 156 golfers teeing it up this week, there are only eight of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world competing, so we are dealing with a relatively weak field. However, there is still plenty to play for as guys on the cusp of (and just inside) the top 125 in the FEC standings fight to qualify for the upcoming playoffs.

As for the course itself, Sedgefield CC profiles as one of the easier tracks on the PGA Tour with an average winning score of roughly 18-under par throughout the past eight seasons. It is a par 70 layout that stretches a bit over 7,100 yards -- so not overly long by any means. The fairways are relatively narrow, but due to golfers not worrying as much about distance off the tee, they tend to get hit at a solid rate. The rough isn’t too penalizing but when the majority of golfers will find the fairways more often than not, you don’t want to be one of the guys hitting from the deep stuff all the time. The greens seem to be the course’s major defense as they are of average size, undulated and "multi-tiered", and feature Bermuda grass which will play really fast (12 feet on the stimpmeter) and putts can carry pretty inconsistent reads. The players who really excel here will be the guys who are big time birdie makers, produce elite par 4 scoring, are accurate off the tee, nail their approach shots and hit a lot of greens in regulation while avoiding three-putts.

Now let’s take a look towards the weather, key stats I’m looking at closely and my picks for the week!

Weather ⛅️

For PGA weather, we’re always looking primarily at Thursday and Friday to see if there’s an advantage for the golfers teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Tuesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

Thursday AM: Sub 5 mph sustained winds earlier in the morning. Winds picking up to around 5-10 mph later in the morning with gusts in the low teens. Sunny with temps in the high 70's to low 80's.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds hanging around 10 mph with gusts slightly above that all afternoon. Partly cloudy with temps in low 90's. Should be pretty humid.

Friday AM: Single digit sustained winds with gusts hitting into the teens. Mostly cloudy with temps in the mid 70's and 80's.

Friday PM: Sustained winds around 10 mph with gusts into the mid teens. Warm and humid with a chance of some pop-up thunderstorms.

Overall: Unless there’s a bigger chance rain will sweep through quickly Friday afternoon that will soften the course up and not cause a long, if any, delay, I’m not seeing much of an advantage to wave stacking this week. But as always, check later Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning for the most up to date forecasts for Greensboro, NC.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Proximity w/ Emphasis on Prox. 150-175 yards | 5% each, 10% total

5. Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 10%

6. 3-Putt Avoidance | 5%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentage I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($10,100 DK | $11,600 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

RCB should catch a ton of ownership this week but I’m not shying away particularly when it comes to cash builds. He enters this week in very good form, coming off of a T10 at the PGA Championship and a T17 at the WGC Bridgestone. He’s excellent with his irons and wedges ranking 5th in the field in SG: App. With eight of the par 4's at Sedgefield CC measuring between 400-450 yards, I’m weighing extra emphasis on golfers’ proximity in the 150-175 yard range, and Cabrera-Bello ranks 1st in the field at that distance. He’s also 12th in GIR and 23rd in Par 4 Average. For his price, his BoB% is acceptable but not great at 20.9% (39th in field) but given the ease of this course, I expect him to exceed that number. He has made 13 of 14 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with four top 10's and carries 22:1 odds. Considering the weaker field, I believe he makes for a top cash play and solid tournament option despite high expected ownership. He ranks 3rd in my overall player model.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,700 DK | $11,100 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Hopefully people aren’t sick of me writing up Niemann yet. He made the cut last week but disappointed over the weekend by not really making any big time moves, shooting 3-over par through the final 36 holes. Still, he was priced way down and it was the kid’s first Major appearance, so simply making the cut was impressive enough. Of course his salary is elevated this week, but he’ll face a much easier course and far easier field. He continues to shine statistically, ranking 2nd in SG: App, 2nd in Proximity (9th in Prox. 150-175 yards), 2nd in GIR, 1st in Par 4 Average and 1st in BoB%. He’s a 28:1 favorite and ranks 5th in my player model. With just one missed cut in his last eight events that includes three top 10 finishes, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be trusted in all formats with considerable upside.

Hideki Matsuyama ($11,300 DK | $11,900 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Looking at more of a pricey tournament leverage play, Matsuyama pops up a bit as a high-risk, high-reward option. He’s 2nd in my player model, and when it comes to this course, it seems like he’s either going to do really well or straight up miss the weekend. In four trips to Sedgefield CC, he’s finished 3rd in 2016, missed the cut in back-to-back years in 2014 & 2015 and carded a 15th place finish in 2013. He has the 2nd best odds in the field at 16:1 behind Webb Simpson (12:1). I believe he’ll be very motivated to win this week. Sitting at 88th in the FedEx Cup rankings, he could use all the points he can get in order to make a much bigger profit throughout the playoffs. Statistically, he doesn’t shine as bright as you’d want a guy this costly to, ranking 31st in SG: App, 50th in GIR, and 118th in Proximity (21st Prox. 150-175 yards). He is 9th in Par 4 Average and 21st in BoB% though. Typically he’s not a guy that has been competing in these weak field events and he has dealt with some nagging wrist injuries, but he is still a world class golfer and can get going at any time. You can look through his event logs from early this season and throughout last season to see the upside he can bring forward. Chalk him up to an elite tournament option who I don’t expect to garner too much ownership across the DFS industry.

Mid-Range Targets

Chris Kirk ($7,500 DK | $10,300 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

If you play on DraftKings, here is the chalkiest play of the week. Coming in as the 30th highest priced option on DK (12th on FanDuel) he’s way too affordable to avoid in cash games. I knew he would grade out well when I was putting together my player model, but I didn’t expect him to rank 1st overall! Kirk was a late addition to the field at last week’s PGA Championship and came out with a very respectable T31 finish, also marking his 10th consecutive made cut. Being an accurate driver and top end wedge/iron player, his game fits this course to a tee. He ranks 6th in SG: App, 4th in Proximity (though only 52nd in Prox. 150-175 yards), 25th in GIR, 6th in Par 4 Average, and 23rd in BoB%. He is only a 66:1 favorite. So as far as the books are concerned, he isn’t a major threat to win, which makes him worth lowering exposure to or outright fading him in GPPs. But for cash, particularly on DraftKings, he’s probably needs to be a near lock.

Steve Stricker ($8,300 DK | $10,400 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Maybe I'm imagining things but it seems like I always write up at least one “old guy” each week. Last week it was Cink. This week, I’ll go with 51-year-old Steve Stricker. Stricker sits 141st in the FEC Standings, exactly 90 points back from the 125th playoff qualifying position. He essentially needs at least a 6th place finish (would award him 100 FEC points) or better to make the playoffs, so you’d hope he’d be gunning for a win this week. I believe he has a chance and he looks like a legitimate play with just one missed cut in 10 PGA Tour events this year and holds 50:1 odds. He’s 14th in SG: App, 17th in GIR, 3rd in Proximity, 10th in Par 4 Average, and 15th in BoB%. Surprisingly, he has no course history here but his game fits very well, and if he gets his putter going, I think he can excel everywhere else tee to green. Stricker ranks 10th overall in my player model and would be higher if I didn’t have a 15% weight on course history.

Harold Varner III ($8,900 DK | $9,300 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

HV3 has been on a tear his past three events with finishes of T17, 6th and T5 and has some of the best form in the field. I’m using the TPC Deere Run course that hosts the John Deere Classic as a comparable course for this week and that is where Varner got his recent 6th place finish. Not to mention he finished 10th at Sedgefield CC last year. His season long stats don’t speak as loudly as his stats from his more recent rounds of golf, so I will focus on those. In Varner’s last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 11th in Par 4 Average and 7th in GIR. All extremely impressive, thus he makes sense when showing up as a 45:1 favorite. He routinely hits 300+ yards off the tee which causes him to miss a lot of fairways (58.5% Driving Accuracy) so hopefully he chooses to club down on some of these holes in order to keep it in the short stuff. I expect him to be pretty popular in cash and I definitely think he is viable in that format, but as of now, I prefer him a bit more for tournaments.

Low Priced Targets

Tyler Duncan ($7,300 DK | $8,600 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Duncan seems to have flown under the radar quite a bit this year but he has had a really solid season entering this week on 11 consecutive made cuts. This includes two recent top 20 finishes in the month of July -- a T17 at the Canadian Open and a T12 at the John Deere Classic which, as I mentioned with Varner, I’m using that event/course as a nice comp to this week. Duncan is 9th in SG: App, 7th in GIR, and 33rd in Proximity. He’s only 67th in Par 4 Average and 54th in BoB% on the season, but over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 20th in both categories (also 1st in SG: App in that span). The 90:1 favorite is priced too far down and has been too steady of a cut maker to not be given a strong look in all formats. Duncan is a pretty crummy putter (122nd SG: Putting) but if he can simply not lose many strokes there or stay about even with the field, he could find himself teeing off late on Sunday. He’s being talked about a good bit across the industry, so I’m not sure where that will leave his ownership since he isn’t a big name to begin with. But I’d roster him with a fair amount of confidence regardless. Duncan comes in 12th in my overall player model.

Sam Ryder ($7,300 DK | $8,600 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Carrying the exact same price tags and 90:1 odds as Duncan is Sam Ryder. Ryder is another guy who found success at the TPC Deere Run, finishing T2 there, and for this week, he comes in 3rd in my stat rankings (16th overall). He comes in 21st in SG: App, 3rd in GIR, 16th in Proximity (6th Prox. 150-175 yards), 18th in Par 4 Average, and 17th in BoB%. Like Duncan, he usually doesn’t do himself many favors with the flat stick, ranking 115th in SG: Putting but as I note most weeks putting is a very unreliable metric and players can get hot on the greens any given week. I don’t feel as confident about Ryder in cash as I do with Duncan considering Ryder has five missed cuts in his last 13 events dating back to the Houston Open, but I do love the upside he can have in tournaments.

Rory Sabbatini ($7,400 DK | $8,700 FD)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

For my last value guy, I wanted to mostly throw stats out the window and just target someone who has some really promising course history. Enter Sabbatini who, upon missing the cut in his first trip here in 2012, bounced back in 2013 with an 8th place finish. And his next trip to Sedgefield CC came last season where he carded a 4th place finish. When I look at his stats, there is some promise with his 12th ranked Par 4 Average and 19th ranked BoB%, but he doesn’t do himself a ton of favors with his wedges and irons coming in at 82nd in SG: App. He went into the Travelers Championship in late June on an exceptional 15 “made cut” streak but has since missed two cuts in his past four events along with a withdrawal from the John Deere Classic. What’s promising, however, is his most recent T12 finish at the Canadian Open. I don’t believe I’ll be looking at Sabbatini too much in cash but I’ll throw him in some GPP lines strictly for his course history upside.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

I can’t write up a detailed bit on every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Here are some more top targets sorted by general price range:

High Priced

- Webb Simpson ($11,600 DK | $12,200 FD) | GPP Only | Price is probably too restrictive for cash but five top 10's here with a win in 9 trips makes him worth some GPP exposure for sure.

- Henrik Stenson ($11,000 DK | $12,100 FD) | GPP Only | Still probably too pricey for him to work out in cash and his form is slipping, but his season long game fits the course well and he’s obviously the reigning champion here for a reason.

- Ryan Moore (9,000 DK | $11,200 FD) | Cash & GPP | Will hit a ton of fairways and ranks 3rd in Par 4 Average.

- Sergio Garcia ($9,200 DK | $10,900 FD) | GPP Only | It pains me to suggest Sergio the way he has been playing but he needs FEC points. Currently at 131st in the standings, he needs a solid finish here to make playoffs.

Mid Priced

- Julian Suri ($9,700 DK | $9,700 FD) | Cash & GPP | Eight cuts made across his last nine worldwide events. Was 3rd in SG: App at Bellerive last week on his way to a T19 finish.

- Jason Kokrak ($7,900 DK | $8,600 FD) | GPP Only | A bit boom or bust but three top 20's in his last four events and ranks 11th in BoB%.

- C.T. Pan ($7,800 DK | $9,100 FD) | Cash & GPP | Very solid all around game for this course. 5th in GIR. Only one missed cut in his last 10 events.

- Johnson Wagner ($7,500 DK | $8,800 FD) | Cash & GPP | Unexciting play but just one MC in last nine events. Finished 5th here in 2016 and ranks 9th in my overall player model. Also another player on the FEC Playoff bubble.

Low Priced

- Nick Watney ($7,100 DK | $8,900 FD) | Cash & GPP | Only two MC's in 19 events on the season. 5th place finish here in 2015. All around solid game and 14th in Par 4 Average.

- Brandon Harkins ($6,900 DK | $8,100 FD) | GPP Only | He was a steady value target of mine in these weak field events a couple months back but form fell off a bit. He is, however, coming off a T9 at the Barracuda Championship two weeks ago and is 4th in the field in BoB%.

- Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800 DK | $8,000 FD) | GPP Only | A top current form target with three top 20 finishes in last five events.

- Richy Werenski ($7,300 DK | $8,900 FD) | GPP Only | Has shown some good form in recent weeks and had a T10 finish at this course last year.

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Good luck this week, guys!

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